516
FXUS63 KMPX 031815
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, FAVORING
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY RISKS.
- A LULL IN STORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK, RETURNING MIDWEEK.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
ABOVE A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AS OF AROUND
230AM, WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORMS JUST SLIDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATE BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE NORTHERN EDGE
WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH THIS MORNING AS OUR CHANCE FOR STORMS IS
LARGELY TIED TO THE ONGOING STORMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
WITH FORCING GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM THIS. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO FULLY CAPTURE THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE MORNING WITH SOME LIKE THE HRRR SHOWING
FAR TOO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AMIDST WHAT IS MOSTLY CAPPED UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY, WITH OTHERS SUCH AS THE RRFS SHOWING NEXT TO NOTHING
EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THE VERTICAL
DISPLACEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS
THAT HAS RESULTED IN A TRICKY FORECAST, WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARDS AS IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THE STORMS IN
IOWA, HOWEVER ALOFT THE BOUNDARY IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THIS LEAVES
OUR SOUTHERN COVERAGE AREA WEDGED BETWEEN THE MORE BOUNTIFUL
INSTABILITY WHICH IS MORE CLOSELY TIED TO THE SURFACE TO OUR SOUTH,
BUT LEAVES ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BE CONCERNED FOR STORM
CHANCES. THE GRID PHILOSOPHY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TO BROAD BRUSH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SPREAD OF STORMS THIS FAR NORTH. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME
ISOLATED CELLS POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY WE EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR STORMS
ARRIVING LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
THE STORM CHANCES TONIGHT COULD TAKE MULTIPLE DIFFERENT FORMS
AS THERE IS ZERO CONSENSUS AS TO HOW THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
GO. THE HRRR/RRFS PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, BUT GENERALLY KEEP THE OVERALL ACTIVITY
MUTED AS WE END UP WITH ANOTHER -200 CIN LAYER CUTTING OFF
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 WITHIN
VARIOUS MODELS GENERALLY ABOVE 800-750MB. THE NAM SUITE TRIES TO
PRODUCE A PAIR OF MCS COMPLEXES OVER NODAK/NEBRASKA WHICH
BISECT THE AREA, HOWEVER THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN OUR
PROMINENT CAPPING INVERSION. NO MATTER THE SHAPE, THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT LOOK TO PRIMARILY BE A HEAVY RAIN, THUNDER, AND
ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT DUE TO THE CAP, WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER
ALREADY RAIN SOAKED SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. NOT TO BE OUTDONE, THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A CHANCE FOR AN MCS TYPE FEATURE OVERNIGHT,
WITH BOTH THE GEFS/EPS SUITES SHOWING DECENT CHANCES. UNTIL WE
ACTUALLY SEE STORM FORMATION TO OUR WEST, THIS WILL REMAIN A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST, BUT DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO BE WOKEN UP BY
SOME HEAVY RAIN OR THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS THE THERMODYNAMICS
GENERALLY SUPPORT ELEVATED STORMS. AFTER ANY MORNING STORMS ROLL
THROUGH, THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD OPEN UP CONDITIONS TO BE GRADUALLY
CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE 4TH OF
JULY. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FURTHER AIRMASS PULSE
TYPE STORMS AS WE STILL MAINTAIN SOME INSTABILITY, HOWEVER
WITHOUT THE FORCING FROM THE BOUNDARY IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY HIGH. SPC SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS
FORECAST GIVEN THE AREA-WIDE GENERAL THUNDER FOR THE ENTIRE
STATES OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN FOR THE HOLIDAY.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY AND TO START THE WEEK,
BRIEF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AS OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES A
MORE NORTHERLY TILT. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES
LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS OUR FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ONCE AGAIN, WITH FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BASE
FLOW. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD PRODUCE YET ANOTHER BROAD
SURFACE FRONT THAT LINGERS IN THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS AND
TIMING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF SAID BOUNDARY WOULD BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S. SO WHILE WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT ANOTHER STRETCH OF HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100S, IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
WISE FOR THIS TIME IN JULY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE LATEST TREND IS FOR MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MN WEAKENING
ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POP UP STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. A POOL OF MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AROUND 1500-2000 FT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW LONG ANY
GIVEN SITE WILL BE WITHIN MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT EXPECT THINGS TO
TEETER BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MOST SITES TOMORROW MORNING. AS WE
GET INTO TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW/S/SE. THINGS
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/E.
KMSP...INTRODUCED A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING,
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 05-07Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO JUMP BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AS THAT LAYER OF MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THE
SIGNAL WARRANTS AN INCLUSION IN THE LATEST TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KNOTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KNOTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KNOTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED
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