057
FXUS63 KMPX 031952 CCA
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
252 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST FEATURES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
- WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. A LULL IN
STORM CHANCES ARRIVES SUNDAY-TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ANOTHER DAY AND YET ANOTHER COMPLEX SCENARIO ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST OWING TO WEAK FORCING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTURE
RICH ATMOSPHERE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A MOISTURE AXIS IN WESTERN MN. UPDRAFTS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN IN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER
WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT
FOR NEAR TERM SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES.
AS REFERENCED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THE PLACEMENT OF REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND NEBULOUS RIPPLES IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN PIECES OF THE PUZZLE TO DEFINING POP
WINDOWS OVER THE NEXT 36-HOURS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, REGIONAL
IR SATELLITE CAPTURES DEEP CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS ALONG WITH A SECOND COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. BOTH COMPLEXES WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT HAVE LAID DOWN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
UPSTREAM STORMS/MCS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA VICINITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A BETTER
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL BE THE DRIVER OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION, WITH TWO "GENERAL
REGIMES" THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. THE FIRST HEADLINE
MAKING REGIME WILL BE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AND
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY/THETA-E GRADIENT IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA/CENTRAL IOWA (PAIRED WITH SPC'S DAY 1 ENHANCED
RISK). THE SECOND REGIME IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES
THAT SHOULD SPAWN CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MUCH OF THE NWS TWIN CITIES FORECAST AREA IS
LOCATED BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE REGIMES, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A
DOWNGRADE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FROM SPC. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN AN
ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PWATS & MUCAPES OF ~2000 J/KG,
BUT THE LACK OF SHEAR PRESENT SHOULD LIMIT GREATER COVERAGE OF
DEEPER CONVECTION. PERHAPS THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING FROM ANY SLOW-MOVING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. OPTED TO LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN TRENDS IN THE REFS/HREF CAM ENSEMBLES. WE'LL
MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SEND SHORT TERM POP UPDATES AS
NEEDED.
WITH DEEPER CONVECTION FORECAST TO RESIDE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHERN REGIME CONVECTION FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, THERE REMAINS A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING POP COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS IS OF COURSE AN
IMPORTANT FORECAST WINDOW WITH SEVERAL INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENTS SET TO
KICKOFF TOMORROW MORNING. WE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
TWO LOWER AND CAP POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT TOMORROW MORNING TO MESSAGE
THE IDEA THAT THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND, BUT
THAT THE CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SKY
COVER OVER THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS
LATER TOMORROW AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH DIURNAL TIMING TO FORCE
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW, BUT GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WE FOLLOWED TRENDS IN THE REFS/HREF
TO BOOST POPS TO 40-60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 IN MN/WI. GENERAL IDEA SHOULD BE FOR A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER TIME TOMORROW EVENING, WITH MOST AREAS DRYING
OUT HOLIDAY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
EXPANSION OF A ~588DM RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
WELCOMED LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND
BEGIN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF A
ZONAL UPPER-FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL SEND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS STARTING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COMBINE WITH A MOISTURE-RICH
ATMOSPHERE TO FEATURE THE RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
MAJORITY OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE LATEST TREND IS FOR MOST PLACES TO REMAIN DRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MN WEAKENING
ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POP UP STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND FAR SOUTHERN MN. A POOL OF MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AROUND 1500-2000 FT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW LONG ANY
GIVEN SITE WILL BE WITHIN MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT EXPECT THINGS TO
TEETER BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MOST SITES TOMORROW MORNING. AS WE
GET INTO TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW/S/SE. THINGS
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW
AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE N/E.
KMSP...INTRODUCED A SHORT WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS TOMORROW MORNING,
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 05-07Z. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO JUMP BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AS THAT LAYER OF MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THE
SIGNAL WARRANTS AN INCLUSION IN THE LATEST TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KNOTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KNOTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KNOTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED
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