445
FXUS63 KMPX 172010
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
310 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- AREAS OF SMOKE MAY MAKE A RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHS NEAR 80.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2 PM READINGS
NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. EXPECTING TO GAIN ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES UNTIL REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS HAVE NOT DROPPED AS EXPECTED, AND IN FACT
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OUTSIDE OF THE CORE METRO. THIS HAS
ALLOWED HEAT INDICES TO REACH HOTTER LEVELS THAN PREDICTED. THE
HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED EARLIER TO THE ALBERT LEA AND EAU
CLAIRE AREAS. AM CONTEMPLATING EXPANDING THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FROM THE METRO INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEGUN TO TOP 105 IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO REACH WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWEST BEHIND IT FROM ABERDEEN, TO FERGUS FALLS
AND PARK RAPIDS. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT DEW POINTS REMAIN
QUITE ELEVATED, BUT FARTHER UPSTREAM RELIEF IS IN SIGHT WHERE
TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. STORMS MAY FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS OVER EASTERN MN AND WI, MOSTLY EAST
OF I-35. STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET
A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND, BUT
THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW GIVEN LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS AND SUB-
OPTIMAL SHEAR.
DRIER AIR WORKS IN SATURDAY, BUT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SMOKE RETURNING IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW,
BUT HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS MAY WORK INTO AREAS EAST OF I-35
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MPCA NOTED THERE ARE A LOT OF
VARIABLES IN PLAY SUCH AS FIRE BEHAVIOR FOLLOWING EARLIER RAIN,
AND HOW ACTIVE FIRES WILL BECOME AGAIN SATURDAY. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING THE
POTENTIAL.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND
PWATS MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME INCREASE
IN THE LLJ AND PASSING DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD SPARK THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD THOSE STORMS NOT DEVELOP, MONDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY AND WORTHY OF HEADLINES. THE
EARLY DAY CONVECTION ALSO CASTS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR RETURNS BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE RIDGE
RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT
TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A SURFACE
FRONT NORTHWEST OF AXN. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT FROM
SW TO NW AT EACH TERMINAL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DIURNAL GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 20KTS. CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR FAR EASTERN MN & WESTERN WI FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS. MAINTAINED PROB30S AT RNH/EAU AND CONVERTED
THEM TO INCLUDE A THUNDER MENTION. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE FRONT INDICATE A NARROW PLUME OF WILDFIRE
SMOKE SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEGREE OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE IS LOW, I
WANTED TO MAKE SOME SMOKE MENTION IN THE NEW TAF PACKAGE AND
OPTED TO INCLUDE 6SM FU AT ALL AREA TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST
HI-RES TIMING.
KMSP...COUPLE NOTES TO PASS ALONG WITH THE NEW 18Z TAF:
1) SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN WI NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXIST EAST OF MSP, SO HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE TAF DRY. IF SHOWERS OR STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP,
THE 2Z-4Z PERIOD SEEMS MOST FAVORABLE.
2) THE RETURN OF WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST, HOWEVER THE LATEST MESSAGING FROM MPCA &
SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS ADVERTISE A NARROW PLUME OF VFR
SMOKE IMPACTING THE TERMINAL FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUIDANCE FEATURES A SECONDARY PUSH OF A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE AFTER 15Z SATURDAY, SO DID INCLUDE A DROP TO MVFR
VISIBILITY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR/-TSRA PM. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RA AM, -TSRA PM. WIND SW-NW 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
GOODHUE-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
CARVER-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...STRUS
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