111
FXUS63 KMPX 182321
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
621 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SMOKE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
INTO MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- TURNING COOLER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN, HOWEVER, WITH 80S AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90. SMOKE IS PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST.
LADYSMITH HAS DROPPED DOWN TO 5 MILE VIS, WITH 1-2 MILE VIS
ACROSS NORTHEAST WI. IT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING WEST TONIGHT.
THE 18Z HRRR HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE EAST WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SMOKE AND NOW CONFINES IT TO THE WISCONSIN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT ANYWHERE EAST OF I-35 IS UNDER
THREAT FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF SMOKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND
PWATS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION ACROSS ND AND PARTS OF SD SUNDAY
EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS, THE MID LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KTS RESULTING IN MORE THAN ENOUGH BULK SHEAR.
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AN
INCREASING LLJ WILL FEED THE CLUSTER/MCS AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST. CAMS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS MCS TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DUE TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN SEVERE RISK IS DAMAGING WIND. THE DEGREE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND ON INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING
PER GFS, BUT AMPLE WITH THE NAM. IF AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH A COLD
POOL CAN DEVELOP, THE WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR NOW, THERE
IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR OUR MN COUNTIES.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ENOUGH
TO ALLOW RECOVERY TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE LOW 90S ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A MEANINGFUL COOL
DOWN MIDWEEK. THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DOES CAST SOME DOUBT AS
TO WHETHER WE CAN FIRE ROUND TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MANY MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA, ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND IA. THIS IS A COMMON RESULT
ANY TIME A COLD POOL TRACKS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON SO WE CAN'T TOTALLY DISCOUNT ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR RETURNS BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S OR 60S WILL BRING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE
RIDGE RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAT TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE CU FIELD WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET LEAVING US WITH
SKC/FEW250 OVERNIGHT, WITH UPPER LEVEL SMOKE GRADUALLY ARRIVING
FROM EAST TO WEST AND PRIMARILY IMPACTING RNH/EAU. THE CHANCE
FOR SEE SMOKE AT MSP IS NOT ZERO, HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR
VISIBILITY TO FALL TO 6SM OR LOWER IS VERY SMALL. WINDS WILL
FAVOR A 180-200 DIRECTION AFTER 12Z, INCREASING TO 6-8KTS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AND 10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS BEYOND THE
END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN THE RNH/EAU SMOKE, WE SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT FOR ALL SITES.
KMSP...ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY FU WITHIN THE TAF AS THE
CHANCE TO DROP TO 6SM OR LOWER IS VERY SMALL, HOWEVER SOME UPPER
LEVEL SMOKE RESULTING IN A DROP BELOW 10SM IS POSSIBLE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND S TO W 10-15G25KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
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