648
FXUS63 KMPX 190535
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SMOKE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
INTO MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- TURNING COOLER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN, HOWEVER, WITH 80S AND A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 90. SMOKE IS PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST.
LADYSMITH HAS DROPPED DOWN TO 5 MILE VIS, WITH 1-2 MILE VIS
ACROSS NORTHEAST WI. IT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING WEST TONIGHT.
THE 18Z HRRR HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE EAST WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SMOKE AND NOW CONFINES IT TO THE WISCONSIN
COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT ANYWHERE EAST OF I-35 IS UNDER
THREAT FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF SMOKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND
PWATS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE
WILL KICK OFF CONVECTION ACROSS ND AND PARTS OF SD SUNDAY
EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS, THE MID LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KTS RESULTING IN MORE THAN ENOUGH BULK SHEAR.
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AN
INCREASING LLJ WILL FEED THE CLUSTER/MCS AS IT CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST. CAMS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS MCS TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED DUE TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. THE MAIN SEVERE RISK IS DAMAGING WIND. THE DEGREE OF
THIS THREAT WILL DEPEND ON INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS LACKING
PER GFS, BUT AMPLE WITH THE NAM. IF AN ORGANIZED MCS WITH A COLD
POOL CAN DEVELOP, THE WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE. FOR NOW, THERE
IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR OUR MN COUNTIES.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ENOUGH
TO ALLOW RECOVERY TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE LOW 90S ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A MEANINGFUL COOL
DOWN MIDWEEK. THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DOES CAST SOME DOUBT AS
TO WHETHER WE CAN FIRE ROUND TWO MONDAY AFTERNOON. MANY MODELS
DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA, ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AND IA. THIS IS A COMMON RESULT
ANY TIME A COLD POOL TRACKS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON SO WE CAN'T TOTALLY DISCOUNT ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR RETURNS BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S OR 60S WILL BRING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE
RIDGE RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAT TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
SMOKE FOR THE WISCONSIN TERMINALS. SHOULD BE VFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITY IMPACTS THERE. ATTENTION FOR MOST WILL BE ON THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FARTHER NORTHWEST LIKE AXN WITH LOWER CHANCES TO
THE EAST. TIMING WILL BE MOSTLY ADDED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES AS
THEY ARE MOSTLY AFTER 06Z.
KMSP...SMOKE LIKELY TO STAY EAST OF THE TERMINAL AREA, SO
CONTINUING TO KEEP IT OUT. STILL SEEING SOME CHANCES FOR TSRA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SO OPTED FOR A PROB30 THAT WILL BE
FURTHER REFINED AS NEW INFORMATION COMES IN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND S TO W 10-15G25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N/NW 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...NDC
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