414
FXUS63 KMPX 200549
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN INTO MONDAY. SEE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
- A SHORT PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING COOLER FOR MIDWEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SMOKE
DENSITY DECREASES. THE WORST VISIBILITY REMAINING IS EAU CLAIRE
WITH LESS THAN 3 MILES. THE SMOKEY HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE RESERVOIR OF SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES.
THE SMOKE WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT FAR EASTERN MN AND WI WHERE AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
ARRIVE, THE MID LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KTS RESULTING
IN MORE THAN ENOUGH BULK SHEAR. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL WORK EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASING LLJ WILL FEED THE
CLUSTERS/MCS AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST. CAMS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN SEVERE RISK IS DAMAGING WIND. THE DEGREE OF THIS THREAT
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF CAPPING AND WHETHER ANY ORGANIZED
COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP. THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ENOUGH
TO ALLOW RECOVERY TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST WI TO SOUTHWEST MN AROUND
MIDDAY. DEW POINT POOLING WITH THE FRONT AND QUICK HEATING
FOLLOWING THE MORNING STORMS AS A THERMAL RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN, BRINGING HEAT INDICES TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, DEW
POINTS WILL PEAK EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR FOLLOWS.
THERMAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
GIVEN BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE MORE EASILY. THEREFORE, HEAT INDICES IN THE METRO
AREA MAY PEAK EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY, THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE
INITIATION OCCURS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE A FEW STORMS FIRE IN
A CORRIDOR FROM ALBERT LEA TO RICE LAKE AND EAU CLAIRE LATE
AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER BET IS ACROSS IA INTO CENTRAL WI.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR RETURNS BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S OR 60S WILL BRING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT. RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE
CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY THIS TIME INSTEAD OF DIRECTLY BENEATH IT, SO
THIS MAY BEGIN A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME VERY HOT AIR OVER THE PLAINS THAT
SHOULD OCCASIONALLY MOVE IN. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE SOLIDLY IN
THE 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED FOR OVERALL STORM COVERAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE HAD JUST ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT'S NOW
MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. THIS MEANS OUR CHANCES FOR ANY TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS MAINLY JUST TIED TO THIS ONE CELL. THERE IS
STILL A CAPABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS NOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE
MN/WI STATE LINE. WITH THESE LATEST TRENDS, WE HAVE ADJUSTED ALL
OF THE MN TAFS DOWN TO PROB30S WITH ALL OF THE WI SITES AT
TEMPOS FOR TSRA. THE LESS STORMS WE HAVE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, THE BETTER CHANCE WE WILL HAVE FOR MORE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING IN MN. IT'S A
SCENARIO WHERE UNTIL THE ENVIRONMENT IS TAPPED INTO, THERE WILL
BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR STORMS.
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN SOME SPOTS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW DENSE THE SMOKE WILL BE.
KMSP...ADJUSTED OUR TEMPO GROUP TO A PROB30 TO SHOW THE
DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE AN INCOMING LINE
OF STORMS TONIGHT, AND OUR PRIMARY CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE TIED
TO ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS
A SCENARIO WHERE KMSP DOES NOT SEE ANY STORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR STORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N/NW 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANOKA-CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BED
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