325
FXUS63 KMPX 200900
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING STORMS THIS MORNING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
NEAR 45 TO 55 MPH, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED BY MID MORNING.
- A SHORT PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TURNING COOLER FOR MIDWEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF STORMS IS PROGRESSING THROUGH MINNESOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. THESE
STORMS HAVE APPROACHED SEVERE LEVEL WINDS, BUT HAVE STAYED
WITHIN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO WESTERN WI, AND EVENTUALLY WANE OFF THE
FURTHER THEY DECOUPLE FROM THE LLJ. THE HI-RES CAMS HAVE HAD A
HORRIBLE HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING, BUT THE GENERAL
IDEA OF WHAT WE HAD BEEN SEEING WITH DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
MORNING ENDED UP BEING OUR SOLUTION WITH THIS FIRST WAVE. AS THE
MORNING ACTIVITY CLEARS OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT WILL BE EARLY
ENOUGH FOR US TO BE ABLE TO RECOVER AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
STORMS LATER TODAY.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT WE COULD HAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY IN SW MN MID-LATE MORNING THAT COULD
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE METRO, BUT IT WOULD BE FAVORED TO STAY
CLOSER TOWARDS THE MANKATO AND OWATONNA AREA. ALL OF THIS
POTENTIAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES TODAY. WITH THE SURGE OF MORE HUMID AIR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HEAT INDICES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR AREAS IN SOUTHERN MN DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. EVEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE DRIER
AIR COULD ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT MIXING OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF THE TWIN CITIES
METRO MAY SEE A PERIOD OF HEAT IMPACTS AS WELL, BUT THE BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICKER
RECOVERY THIS EVENING. THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SPC SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY, BUT MAIN RISK CONTINUES TO FAVOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER OUR MORNING STORMS, IT SEEMS MUCH
MORE LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REMAINS
DRY. THAT SAID, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WOULD BE BETWEEN RUSK TO EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES AND EAST
INTO CENTRAL WI. TIED TO THE FRONT WILL BE A WAVE OF SOME
ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS DENSE
OR LONG-LASTING.
BEHIND THIS WAVE, COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SETTLE IN.
AFTER OVER A WEEK OF CONSECUTIVE 90+ DEGREE DAYS, HIGHS WILL
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE
NIGHTTIME LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S NEARLY AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A NICE TIME TO OPEN UP WINDOWS
AGAIN. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BUILDING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL COME FROM MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES,
AND WILL BE DAY TO DAY. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE THIS WEEKEND, IS OUR HIGHS MAY CLIMB RIGHT BACK
UP INTO THE 90S AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED FOR OVERALL STORM COVERAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE HAD JUST ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT'S NOW
MOVING INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. THIS MEANS OUR CHANCES FOR ANY TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IS MAINLY JUST TIED TO THIS ONE CELL. THERE IS
STILL A CAPABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS NOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE
MN/WI STATE LINE. WITH THESE LATEST TRENDS, WE HAVE ADJUSTED ALL
OF THE MN TAFS DOWN TO PROB30S WITH ALL OF THE WI SITES AT
TEMPOS FOR TSRA. THE LESS STORMS WE HAVE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, THE BETTER CHANCE WE WILL HAVE FOR MORE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING IN MN. IT'S A
SCENARIO WHERE UNTIL THE ENVIRONMENT IS TAPPED INTO, THERE WILL
BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR STORMS.
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN SOME SPOTS. THERE
MAY BE IMPACTS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW DENSE THE SMOKE WILL BE.
KMSP...ADJUSTED OUR TEMPO GROUP TO A PROB30 TO SHOW THE
DECREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE AN INCOMING LINE
OF STORMS TONIGHT, AND OUR PRIMARY CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE TIED
TO ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS
A SCENARIO WHERE KMSP DOES NOT SEE ANY STORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR STORMS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N/NW 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANOKA-CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-
NICOLLET-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
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