439
FXUS63 KMPX 201948
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID TONIGHT. THE COOLER AIR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT IS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO THE
BORDER AREA OF NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHWEST WI. TEMPERATURES ARE
HEATING UP THROUGH THE 80S ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, BUT DEW
POINTS ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE 70S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 80S ARE BEING MEASURED. HEAT INDICES ARE
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 THROUGHOUT THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. VARIOUS WOFS RUNS HIGHLIGHT NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI AND IA AS THE MAIN TARGET AREAS WITH
MINIMUM BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS LIKELY DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING. IN OUR AREA SPECIFICALLY, RUSK,
CHIPPEWA, AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACTIVITY GOING FORWARD. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND HOW LONG IT
TAKES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR. IF THIS TAKES ANOTHER
FEW HOURS, IT IS LIKELY TO MISS THOSE COUNTIES AS WELL. WHEN
STORMS FORM THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL HAS HINTED AT SOME LIGHT SMOKE ADVECTING IN
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, BUT UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES ARE
NEARLY UNRESTRICTED. SOME 8 AND 9 MILE REPORTS, BUT NOTHING LIKE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S OR 60S WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE RECENT
HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY THIS TIME INSTEAD OF DIRECTLY BENEATH IT, SO THIS MAY
BEGIN A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY HOT AIR OVER THE PLAINS THAT SHOULD
OCCASIONALLY MOVE IN. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE SOLIDLY IN THE 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
MVFR STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IN RESPONSE TO VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. SOME HAVE
DEVELOPED INTO LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH TS JUST WEST OF MKT AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MKT AND EAU HAVE A CHANCE AT PRECIP FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF, THEN DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AREA WIDE
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST AND GUST 20-30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LOWER
CLOUDS MAY WORK IN LATE TONIGHT PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THEN
LIFT AND SCATTER LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
KMSP...THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING ANY
TSRA THREAT. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-SIBLEY-STEELE-
WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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