005
FXUS63 KMPX 210007
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID TONIGHT. THE COOLER AIR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A COLD FRONT/OCCLUDED FRONT IS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO THE
BORDER AREA OF NORTHEAST MN AND NORTHWEST WI. TEMPERATURES ARE
HEATING UP THROUGH THE 80S ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, BUT DEW
POINTS ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE 70S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 80S ARE BEING MEASURED. HEAT INDICES ARE
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 THROUGHOUT THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. VARIOUS WOFS RUNS HIGHLIGHT NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI AND IA AS THE MAIN TARGET AREAS WITH
MINIMUM BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS LIKELY DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING. IN OUR AREA SPECIFICALLY, RUSK,
CHIPPEWA, AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACTIVITY GOING FORWARD. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND HOW LONG IT
TAKES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR. IF THIS TAKES ANOTHER
FEW HOURS, IT IS LIKELY TO MISS THOSE COUNTIES AS WELL. WHEN
STORMS FORM THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING.
THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL HAS HINTED AT SOME LIGHT SMOKE ADVECTING IN
ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, BUT UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES ARE
NEARLY UNRESTRICTED. SOME 8 AND 9 MILE REPORTS, BUT NOTHING LIKE
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S OR 60S WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE RECENT
HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL U.S.
NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY THIS TIME INSTEAD OF DIRECTLY BENEATH IT, SO THIS MAY
BEGIN A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY HOT AIR OVER THE PLAINS THAT SHOULD
OCCASIONALLY MOVE IN. HIGHS BY SUNDAY MAY BE SOLIDLY IN THE 90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF. THERE WAS SOME SPOTTY
THUNDER WHICH HAD DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE EAU'S VICINITY BUT HAS
CONTINUED EASTWARD AND NO LONGER IS POSING PRECIP CONCERNS. BREEZY NW
WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN THE TALKING POINT THIS PERIOD. WI SITES AS OF
NOW HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL AT A FEW HOURS OF SUB-18KTS WINDS
TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING. ALL SITES CAN
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER DAY OF 20-30KT GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW, A BAND OF POTENTIALLY MVFR STRATUS
LOOKS TO DIVE DOWN FROM NORTHERN MN LATE TONIGHT. MOST SITES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW-VFR SCATTERED BUT DID CALL FOR BKN MVFR CIGS
AT STC, AXN, AND EAU.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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