841
FXUS63 KMPX 231211
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
711 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER, CLOSER TO NORMAL, TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- OVERALL LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OUR FLOW
IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL INCREASE WAA. THIS WILL
START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS UP TO AROUND 80 TODAY
AND THE LOWER TO MID 80S TOMORROW. THIS IS A NOTABLE INCREASE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S WE HIT YESTERDAY. FRIDAY WILL START
TO SEE MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP TO
DEVELOP A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT THIS IS MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH WILL SEE SEE
WARMER MID LEVELS WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO
SEE A SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND WITH THIS
PATH THE MAIN LIFT WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA COULD
SEE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THESE STORMS, BUT INSTABILITY RUNS
OUT QUICKLY FARTHER SOUTH.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE FIRST OF THE HOT DAYS AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. SO THE HEAT LOOKS TO RETURN AND STAY FOR A WHILE, WHICH
INCREASING THE IMPACT OF HEAT STRESS. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A LOCK FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH 90 PLUS PERCENT OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. SO THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTIONS COME
DOWN TO HOW MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THE HEAT
BE? SO WHILE ABOVE NORMAL IS HIGH CONFIDENCE, HOW HIGH IS WHERE
SOME SPREAD STILL EXISTS. A "COOL" SOLUTION WOULD SEE HIGHS
MORE IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HOT SOLUTIONS
PUSHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S TO A FEW MEMBERS
PUSHING OVER 100. ON THE RAIN/STORMS SIDE OUR SECOND CHANCE
COMES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE BETTER SIGNAL
IN BOTH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST. SO WE WOULD ONCE AGAIN WE ALONG THE EDGE OF
THE CHANCES. LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, QPF IN THE ENSEMBLES GET
WIDELY SCATTERED WITH NO CLEAR PRECIPITATION SIGNAL. IT IS NOT A
DRY RESULT SO WE COULD SEE SOMETHING COME TOGETHER AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 707 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS,
AND A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG FRIDAY MORNING, BUT FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.
KMSP...
NO WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND SW TO W 7-12 KTS.
SUN...VFR, WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND S 15G20 KTS.
MON...VFR, WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JRB
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