954
FXUS63 KMPX 071158
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN
INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING, THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
OTHER THAN PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE,
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE DISPLAYED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MN BORDER
AND INTO FAR SE MN, BUT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR
THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA THIS MORNING. WHAT IS OF CONCERN IS
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER NW MN,
EMANATING FROM A 999MB SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A BROAD CENTRAL NOAM TROUGH, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SHOVE A DIGGING AXIS AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD
TROUGH, SWEEPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATER
TODAY. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY, THUS LIMITING OVERALL
INSTABILITY TO POTENTIALLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THAT SAID,
BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 35KT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON DIURNAL TIMING, WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS
AREAS LOOK TO BE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
SHOULD LAPSE RATES BE REALIZED IN THE 7-8 DEG C/KM RATES, AS HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST 24-48HRS FOR TODAY, THEN ALONG WITH
THE MID-LEVEL STRONGER WINDS, A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA SO THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT THERE IS A NON-ZERO RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, EVEN DESPITE THE OVERALL SMALLER POPS AND MEAGER
EXPECTED COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO WI BY THIS EVENING THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR ANY AND ALL PRECIP TO
BE OUT OF OUR COVERAGE AREA BY SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH ALL DAY SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING FRONT
OVER NORTHERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, LINKING UP WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR PORTION
OF MN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE IN IA AND POINTS SOUTH. SIMILARLY, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SAME STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN, BETTER STORM
COVERAGE/STRENGTH WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE WFO MPX
COVERAGE AREA, AND BOTH THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO HAVE VERY LITTLE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SINCE THE DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WILL BE BETTER TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ONCE PAST THESE WEEKEND CHANCES OF RAIN, A MAINLY DRY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DEVELOP OVER THE
ROCKIES BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPETUS TO REACH OUR PORTION OF THE
LOWER 48, AND SYSTEMS LOOK TO PHASE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE APPALACHIANS AND POINTS EAST. THUS,
THIS SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US PRIMARILY HIGH AND DRY FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN THE WAY OR AIRMASS CHANGE FROM NOW UNTIL
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL MEAN THAT ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT TO THE
SURFACE OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING FAR AWAY
FROM NORMAL VALUES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FINALLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, A MORE PRONOUNCED EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH WITH A FOUR CORNERS RIDGE PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP, WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR SOLID NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL MAKE A PATHWAY FOR COOLER CENTRAL CANADIAN AIR TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA, THUS DROPPING HIGHS BACK TO THE 70S
AREA-WIDE AND LOWS TO THE 50S AREA-WIDE FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES TO START THE 07/12Z TAF
SET, ALTHOUGH SOME IFR LOW CEILINGS ARE IMPACTING AXN WHILE
RA/TSRA ARE ENCROACHING UPON RWF. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MAKE PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM NW MN THIS MORNING AND WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MN/WI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. A FEW
CLUSTERS OF TSRA ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN MN THIS MORNING,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING RWF. OVERALL, THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RUN INTO MORE STABLE AIR, ALLOWING DIURNAL IMPACTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO BLEND WITH THE FRONTAL DYNAMICS TO
SPARK ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN-EASTERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENTS
AMONG THE CAMS BUT SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR A
TEMPOS AT AXN-RWF WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT MKT-MSP-RNH-EAU THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW, POSSIBLY A LITTLE BREEZY/GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING.
KMSP...ONLY WRINKLE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THE CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY FOR EARLY-MID AFTERNOON TSRA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NOT A GREAT CHANCE, BUT NOT ONE THAT CAN GO UNMENTIONED
EITHER, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30. OTHERWISE, A WIND SHIFT
IS EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS BECOMING N.
MON...CHC A.M. MVFR/-TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS OR LESS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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