539
FXUS63 KMPX 071930
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH MONDAY NIGHT.
- THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF IT. GENERALLY QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN THIS
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE, TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
REMAINDER OF TODAY & WEEKEND
AS OF 12:30PM, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM
RENVILLE/REDWOOD COUNTIES TO MORRISON/MILLE LACS COUNTIES. OVERALL,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE NOT WELL ORGANIZED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
EAST/SOUTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID, SOME OF THE SEVERE PARAMETERS IN
PLACE WILL STILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. AFTER FROPA, WINDS WILL TURN NWRLY AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE AREA PROMOTING COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT
BREEZES AND TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT BRINGING TODAY'S
RAIN/STORMS WILL STALL OUT OVER IL, IA, AND INTO SD. THIS STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW, ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITH
NBM POPS PAINTING 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
MN AND 15-30 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL MN. LOOKING AT SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAIN PARAMETERS, NOTHING STICKS OUT TO ME THAT'S CAUSE FOR CONCERN.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN PLACE, THAT
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AND
WITH PW ANOMALIES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, THE THREAT FOR ANY
FLASH FLOODING LOOKS LOW.
NEXT WORK WEEK
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
ALONG WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL LEAD TO
CONSISTENT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE
THIS FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AGAIN,
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS IL AND IA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN. HOWEVER, BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, AND INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AS THESE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RACE ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES DECREASE
THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CLUSTERS OF -TSRA OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE CORES OF THE HEAVIER STORMS, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DECAY BY MID-AFTERNOON AS IT GETS INTO WESTERN WI.
HOWEVER, CAMS SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED -TSRA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DELAYED TIMING OF PROB30 AT EAU UNTIL 21-00Z.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST,
RESULTING IN VFR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, THEN BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD STILL BE NEAR
MSP AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH. VFR EXPECTED BY MID-
AFTERNOON WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, CHC -SHRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS BECOMING N.
MON...CHC A.M. MVFR/-TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS OR LESS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...CTG
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