132
FXUS63 KMPX 080533
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COMES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, ALONG WITH MONDAY NIGHT.
- THEN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN FOR
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGES. THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. GENERALLY QUIET AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN THIS WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN/STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THEREAFTER,
DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE, TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
REMAINDER OF TODAY & WEEKEND
AS OF 12:30PM, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW TO NE FROM
RENVILLE/REDWOOD COUNTIES TO MORRISON/MILLE LACS COUNTIES.
OVERALL, SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT ARE NOT WELL
ORGANIZED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST. THAT BEING SAID, SOME OF THE
SEVERE PARAMETERS IN PLACE WILL STILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
RAIN FREE BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. AFTER FROPA,
WINDS WILL TURN NWRLY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ACROSS THE AREA
PROMOTING COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE 50S. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT BREEZES AND
TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT BRINGING TODAY'S
RAIN/STORMS WILL STALL OUT OVER IL, IA, AND INTO SD. THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW,
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITH NBM POPS PAINTING
30-50 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MN AND 15-30
PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL MN. LOOKING AT SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
PARAMETERS, NOTHING STICKS OUT TO ME THAT'S CAUSE FOR CONCERN.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN PLACE,
THAT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. AND WITH PW ANOMALIES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, THE
THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING LOOKS LOW.
NEXT WORK WEEK
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
ALONG WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL
LEAD TO CONSISTENT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL RIDE THIS FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AGAIN, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS IL AND IA WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR THE THE HEAVIEST RAIN. HOWEVER, BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN AS THESE UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY RACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CHANCES DECREASE THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME S TO SW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY 5-10KTS AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NUDGING UPWARDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SUNDAY MORNING. LATER TAFS WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL AS THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT ON SUCH OCCURRENCE NEAR MSP CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING. LATER TAFS WILL REFINE THIS POTENTIAL.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC EARLY A.M. MVFR/-TSRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EARLY A.M. -SHRA. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS BECOMING NW.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...JPC
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