604
FXUS63 KMPX 081716
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 80S.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COME THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A FEW STORMS EACH OF THOSE PERIODS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE
ACTION FOR TODAY, AND ACTUALLY A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP
WITH ALL THE SYNOPTIC FACTORS IN PLACE. BROAD SUBSIDENCE, WARM
EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
MAKE FOR QUITE THE SATURDAY TODAY, FEATURING HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL
RETREAT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND LINGER JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF MN/WI, IF NOT MAKE SLIGHT INROADS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
BOTH STATES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL LINK
UP WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH
WILL THEN SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL SEND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER OUR
REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY THE EVENING-
NIGHTTIME PERIODS, AND SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL COINCIDE
WITH ENHANCED NOCTURNAL LOW-MID LEVEL JETTING. THE RETURN OF THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY LEVELS,
NOTHING EXCESSIVE BUT DEWPOINTS WILL RISE FROM THE 50S TODAY TO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
ELEVATE INSTABILITY LEVELS WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
NOCTURNAL JETTING AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH THE FRONT
ACTING AS A LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM, MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
MAINLY NIGHTTIME PERIODS. IT'S THE LOW-MID LEVEL JETTING WHICH
MAY BE THE TIPPING FACTOR THAT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG-TO-
SEVERE STORMS EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD TONIGHT- MONDAY NIGHT,
PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COVERAGE
WILL BE PRETTY SPARSE AND UNCERTAINTY IS FAIRLY HIGH IN EVEN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, ITS
POTENTIAL CANNOT BE IGNORED, THUS THE DELINEATIONS OF MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISKS IN THE SWODY1, SWODY2, AND SWODY3 OUTLOOKS
BY SPC.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERING OVER HUDSON BAY FINALLY LOSES ITS
GRIP TUESDAY MORNING, OPENING UP AND SHIFTING EASTWARD,
ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT LINGERING NEARBY TO NO LONGER LINGER
NEARBY AND BRING IN BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MAY DRIFT
THROUGH, THE LACK OF ANY ALIGNING SURFACE FEATURES MEANS FEW
MENTIONS OF PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. AND, ANY MENTION OF PRECIP THAT IS FOUND IN THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE LITTLE QPF AND FORCING ALONG WITH IT. IN
ADDITION, THE WARM MID-AUGUST TEMPERATURES FEATURE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE A TUMBLE BACK FOR THE END
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM WNW TO MORE
NNW, BRINGING IN A TOUCH OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WHICH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS
FROM THE 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK DOWN TO THE 70S STARTING
THURSDAY. SIMILARLY, LOWS FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO THE 50S AREA-WIDE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW CAMS SHOW A
BOWING LINE OF STORMS FORMING IN WESTERN MN NEAR MIDNIGHT AND
TRAVELING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW OTHER
CAMS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
HAVE SCATTERED -SHRA AND PERHAPS -TSRA TRAVELING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA NEAR AND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. HAVE SPED UP
PROB30S OVER MN BY A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EARLIER
POSSIBILITY POSSIBILITY OF STORMS. CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO MVFR
WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CORES. ONCE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE EAST,
VFR IS EXPECTED OVER MN FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER OVER WI, CIGS LOOK
TO DIP TO MVFR (NEAR 1500 FEET) FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RISING AGAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TURN
SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY SLOW TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
MORE PREDOMINANT ACROSS MN AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES.
KMSP...MOVED UP TIMING OF PROB30 FOR -TSRA TO 07-12Z. IF A LINE
OF STORMS FORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THINKING HEAVIEST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MSP. BUT, THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE COULD CLIP MSP RESULTING IN MVFR.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EARLY A.M. -SHRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS BECOMING NW.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...CTG
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