126
FXUS63 KMPX 090907
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE, A FEW PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A BIT OF A NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SITS OVER THE
WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI. A FEW
MEAGER TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE CAN BE ANALYZED WHILE THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER EASTERN SD/NE. ALOFT, THE LARGE TROUGH
EMANATING FROM HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO ROTATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AROUND ITS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE IS LLJ IN BETWEEN
900-700MB, HELPING SPARK THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SPORTING A ROUGHLY 1.50" PWAT. THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHOWS UP NICELY AT THE SURFACE
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW- MID 60S IN WESTERN MN WHILE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE EVIDENT IN EASTERN MN
TO WESTERN WI.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT GOING TOWARDS SUNRISE, THE PUSH OF THE
SURFACE LOW INTO IA WITHIN THE ELEVATED MOISTURE/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL HELP FILL IN THE AREA OVER SOUTHWESTERN-
SOUTHERN MN WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
NECESSARILY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE STORMS ONGOING OVERNIGHT HAVE GENERALLY
PRODUCED 0.25"-0.50" HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
RAINFALL RATES NEARING 1 IN/HR. THE STORMS ARE PROGRESSIVE TO
THE EAST, THUS MITIGATING FLOODING CONCERNS THUS FAR. HOWEVER,
SHOULD STORM COVERAGE OVERACHIEVE, EVEN FFG OVER 2 IN/HR COULD
BE REALIZED IN POCKETS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
THEREAFTER AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS
MOVE TO THE E AND SE OF THE COVERAGE AREA. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. WHILE THIS
SCENARIO WILL NOT BRING IN AN AIRMASS CHANGE IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS, IT WILL PUSH THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FAR SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT DOES LOOK
TO RETREAT BACK NORTH JUST ENOUGH TO SPAWN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MORNING TUESDAY, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ONE LAST GASP FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
NOAM. LIKE THIS MORNING, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONGER STORMS BUT ORGANIZATION IS AGAIN LACKING AS IS DIURNAL
ASSISTANCE DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT TIMING.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO RUN MAINLY DRY ASIDE FROM AN
ISOLATED CHANCE HERE OR THERE OF A FEW SHOWERS. THE TOPIC THEN
CHANGES TO ONE OF TEMPERATURES AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 84-85 DEGREES. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN/SHIFT
SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY WHILE THE NOAM TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, MAKING FOR MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. COOLER WESTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, BRINGING A COOLER
AIRMASS TO OUR REGION FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH
LOWS INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO (AND NEAR 60
WITHIN THE TC METRO).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
TRICKY CONVECTIVE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE CAMS WITH NOT ONLY INITIATION BUT ALSO
PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE TAF PERIOD. VERY ISOLATED TSRA
CURRENTLY ONGOING BUT MOSTLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS SO HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO START ALL SITES AS DRY. THAT SAID, A VARIANCE OF PROB30
TIMING EXISTS ACROSS ALL SITES AS POCKETS OF TSRA ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED BUT DIFFICULT TO GO WITH TEMPO CERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE/WHEN. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ISSUE AMDS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL
PASSING CIRRUS/SMOKE. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY NEAR AND AFTER
DAYBREAK, AND POTENTIALLY INTO MVFR LEVEL SHOULD TSRA OCCUR NEAR
ANY TERMINALS (WHICH ALSO WOULD CAUSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS).
WINDS MAY BE QUITE ERRATIC OWING TO NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, BUT OVERALL TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS
OUTSIDE OF TSRA.
KMSP...BEST TIMING FOR TSRA STILL LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS UP THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT THIS COULD BE ADJUSTED
SHOULD ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
WHICH SHIFT EAST ACROSS MN AND/OR OVER CENTRAL MN AND DRIFT NEAR
THE TC METRO. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE 10Z-13Z TIMING BUT
THIS COULD BE ADJUSTED EARLIER OR LATER SO RADAR TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. OTHERWISE, MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
CLOSE TO SUNRISE AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
MID-LEVELS SCOUR OUT IN FAVOR OF HIGH CIRRUS/SMOKE PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS OVERALL TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS BUT WITH
POTENTIALLY ERRATIC CHANGES IN DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EARLY A.M. -SHRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS BECOMING NW.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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