206
FXUS63 KMPX 091942
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THIS
UPCOMING WEEK WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE, BECOMING
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND.
REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
HAVE SINCE CLEARED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. OVERCAST SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING'S COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH DP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, ALONG WITH INSTABILITY BUILDING IN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY OVER WESTERN WI.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY LIMITED FORCING PRESENT OVER THE REGION,
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY MINIMAL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S.
FOR MONDAY, THE WARM FRONT THAT'S BEEN HANGING OUT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WILL RETREAT BACK SOUTH AS THE CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OUT OF THE NORTH.
DP TEMPS WILL START DECREASING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY, ULTIMATELY DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND NORTH
OF MN HWY 7 AND UPPER 50S TO 60S SOUTH OF MN HWY 7. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A QUITE PLEASANT MONDAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, WE TALKED ABOUT THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
AND HOW IT WAS ROTATING LOBES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. WELL, THE
NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY, OR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPICTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN 700MB/500MB MEAN FLOW WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER SHOT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
TIMEFRAME. LATE EVENING MONDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. HIGH RES
MODELS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE SUITES DEPICT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SD. GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE/THETA-E/INSTABILITY
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS SWRN AND SOUTHERN MN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, LIKELY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE. AS
OF NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS OVER SWRN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERLAID ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ONWARD, A
MORE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY PASS THROUGH OFFERING LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS FOUND
IN THE POP GRIDS WILL OFFER VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF QPF.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FALL BACK BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
HAS A MORE NWRLY COMPONENT TO IT, WHICH WILL USHER COOLER CANADIAN
AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE
NEAR IT OVER WEST-CENTRAL WI. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR -TSRA
AT EAU FROM 21-00Z FOR THIS POTENTIAL. RESIDUAL NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND CALM WINDS WILL ALSO FOSTER FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT EAU EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING
TO LIFR (1/2 MILE) FROM 10-14Z. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE. VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY POST FRONT. WINDS THEN
SLOW TO LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE
PASSING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST
OF MSP. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC EARLY A.M. -SHRA. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS BECOMING NW.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...CTG
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