205
FXUS63 KMPX 100544
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
THEN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGES. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND.
REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE SINCE CLEARED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. OVERCAST
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING'S COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH DP TEMPS
BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
BUILDING IN WITH DAYTIME HEATING, AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY OVER
WESTERN WI. HOWEVER, WITH VERY LIMITED FORCING PRESENT OVER THE
REGION, CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY MINIMAL
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S.
FOR MONDAY, THE WARM FRONT THAT'S BEEN HANGING OUT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR WILL RETREAT BACK SOUTH AS THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
OUT OF THE NORTH. DP TEMPS WILL START DECREASING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, ULTIMATELY DROPPING TO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF MN HWY 7 AND UPPER 50S TO 60S
SOUTH OF MN HWY 7. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUITE PLEASANT MONDAY
WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 80S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, WE TALKED ABOUT THE HUDSON BAY UPPER
LOW AND HOW IT WAS ROTATING LOBES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION.
WELL, THE NEXT LOBE OF ENERGY, OR SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEPICTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE IN 700MB/500MB MEAN FLOW WILL PROMOTE
ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. LATE EVENING MONDAY, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD IN RESPONSE
TO THE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. HIGH RES MODELS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLE SUITES DEPICT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SD.
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE/THETA-E/INSTABILITY GRADIENT SETTING UP
ACROSS SWRN AND SOUTHERN MN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
LIKELY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS OVER SWRN AND SOUTHERN MN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVERLAID ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ONWARD, A
MORE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY PASS THROUGH OFFERING LOW-
END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THAT
IS FOUND IN THE POP GRIDS WILL OFFER VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FALL BACK
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW HAS A MORE NWRLY COMPONENT TO IT, WHICH WILL USHER
COOLER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION ALTHOUGH PRE-
DAWN THROUGH SUNRISE FOG IS LOOKING FAIRLY LIKELY AT MSP AND THE
WI TAF SITES. MSP MAY SEE SOME DIPS INTO MVFR RANGE WHILE THE WI
TAF SITES ARE LIKELY TO HIT IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER. ONCE PAST
THE FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
AND SMOKE. LIGHT & VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SE AFTER
SUNRISE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS INTO
THE 5-10KT RANGE.
KMSP...ONLY CONCERN IS IF FOG DURING THE MORNING PUSH HOURS
DROPS INTO MVFR RANGE OR REMAINS AS MINIMAL VFR. FOG MAY LIKELY
DROP INTO MVFR OR EVEN IFR AT THE RELIEVER AIRPORTS BUT
NECESSARILY AT MSP. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM NE AFTER SUNRISE TO SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 10KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...JPC
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