014
FXUS63 KMPX 101151
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
651 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN ARE LIMITED THIS WEEK, MAINLY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, A FEW PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING SURFACE FEATURE
TODAY WITH A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY WEST-TO-EAST FRONT SITTING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THIS MORNING
WITH NEAR-ZERO TO ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA, RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA. ONCE THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BURNS OFF, A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. CLOUDS INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WHILE EVER-PRESENT HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AROUND ITS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN FRINGES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL ALSO AGAIN
DEVELOP WITHIN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, PUTTING
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALREADY DECENT CAM AGREEMENT ON
A CLUSTER OF STORMS LOOKING TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN SD AND
NORTHEASTERN NE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT, THEN PRESSING ESE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN-SOUTHERN MN, THUS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER.
ARGUMENTS CAN BE MADE OF HAVING AN MCS DEVELOP IF THE CONVECTION
ALIGNS WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. AS SUCH,
THIS ALIGNS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE
SWODY1 (AND THE EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG OUR BORDER WITH
WFO FSD). DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION, THE
SWODY1 BLEEDS INTO THE START OF THE SWODY2 PERIOD, HENCE THE
VERY SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF THE MARGINAL RISK IN BOTH OUTLOOKS.
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING,
MAKING FOR A TRANQUIL DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 80S
AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS POOLED IN FAR SOUTHERN MN, INTO THE LOWER
70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THIS ROUND LOOKS
MUCH MORE BENIGN, POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN HAVING THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
ONCE PAST THIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUND OF RAIN, CONDITIONS
LOOK FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FEATURE. SO MUCH SO, IN FACT, THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL ADVERTISED TO TAKE A DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD, COMING OUT OF THE 80S AND INTO THE 70S. THERE
IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH MAY THRUST
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT AGAIN
NOTHING LOOKS TO BE ORGANIZED OR IMPACTFUL. THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION ALTHOUGH PRE-
DAWN THROUGH SUNRISE FOG AT THE WI TAF SITES HAS DROPPED
CONDITIONS TO LIFR-OR-WORSE. ONCE PAST THE FOG, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND SMOKE. LIGHT &
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SE AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH SPEEDS INTO THE 5-10KT RANGE.
THERE IS A GROWING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN IN THE
HOURS APPROACHING 12Z TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY REACHING MKT AND
POTENTIALLY RWF-MSP. THE NEXT FEW TAF ISSUANCES WILL RESOLVE THE
DETAILS BUT THERE IS ALREADY DECENT CAM AGREEMENT OF HAVING A
COMPLEX DEVELOP IN EASTERN SD OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SLIDE SE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MN, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH IT
MAY REACH.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NE AFTER SUNRISE TO SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UNDER
10KTS. CHANCES INCREASE A BIT THAT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM
EASTERN SD MAY REACH FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT MSP. HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 AT THIS POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR IT BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE CB/TS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC -SHRA LATE. WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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