675
FXUS63 KMPX 101720
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN ARE LIMITED THIS WEEK, MAINLY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, A FEW PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING SURFACE FEATURE
TODAY WITH A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY WEST-TO-EAST FRONT SITTING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THIS MORNING
WITH NEAR-ZERO TO ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA, RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA. ONCE THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BURNS OFF, A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S. CLOUDS INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WHILE EVER-PRESENT HUDSON
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS A POTENT SHORTWAVE AROUND ITS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN FRINGES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL ALSO AGAIN
DEVELOP WITHIN A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, PUTTING
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALREADY DECENT CAM AGREEMENT ON
A CLUSTER OF STORMS LOOKING TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN SD AND
NORTHEASTERN NE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT, THEN PRESSING ESE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN-SOUTHERN MN, THUS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER.
ARGUMENTS CAN BE MADE OF HAVING AN MCS DEVELOP IF THE CONVECTION
ALIGNS WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. AS SUCH,
THIS ALIGNS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE
SWODY1 (AND THE EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG OUR BORDER WITH
WFO FSD). DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTION, THE
SWODY1 BLEEDS INTO THE START OF THE SWODY2 PERIOD, HENCE THE
VERY SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF THE MARGINAL RISK IN BOTH OUTLOOKS.
PRECIPITATION WILL WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING,
MAKING FOR A TRANQUIL DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE LOW-MID 80S
AND HIGHEST DEWPOINTS POOLED IN FAR SOUTHERN MN, INTO THE LOWER
70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THIS ROUND LOOKS
MUCH MORE BENIGN, POTENTIALLY NOT EVEN HAVING THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
ONCE PAST THIS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUND OF RAIN, CONDITIONS
LOOK FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FEATURE. SO MUCH SO, IN FACT, THAT TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL ADVERTISED TO TAKE A DROP TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD, COMING OUT OF THE 80S AND INTO THE 70S. THERE
IS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH MAY THRUST
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT AGAIN
NOTHING LOOKS TO BE ORGANIZED OR IMPACTFUL. THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
TEMPERED BACK THE BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS WE WERE CARRYING
FROM THE 12Z TAF AS SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY LOWER COVERAGE FOR
THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE BKN SKIES LOOK TO ARRIVE AFTER
03-04Z AS THE FRONT SLIDES NORTHWARDS, WITH A CHANCE FOR
-TSRA/-SHRA FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES, MOST LIKELY FOR RWF/MKT WITH
A LOWER CHANCE FOR MSP. BKN LOW VFR CIGS ARE THE LOWEST
EXPECTED, WITH A LOWER LEVEL WARM NOSE KEEPING THE BULK OF
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY ELEVATED WITH ONLY MVFR VISIBILITY DURING
ACTIVE -TSRA/-SHRA. BY 12Z, THE CHANCES DIMINISH AND WE RETURN
TO VFR AT ALL SITES WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO 10KFT AND BCMG
SCATTERED. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PREVAILING FROM 070-100
WITH SPEEDS UNDER 5KTS, VRB AT TIMES.
KMSP...KEPT THE PROB30 FOR -RA INTACT FROM THE 12Z, BUT THE
CHANCE HAS LOWERED WITH GUIDANCE PUSHING SOUTHWARDS. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES FOR THE 00Z, WE MAY REMOVE THE -RA CHANCE
ENTIRELY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDH
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