016
FXUS63 KMPX 102338
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (50-60% CHANCE) ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, SOME COULD
BE STRONG WITH WIND AS THE MAIN THREAT.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE) TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE SCATTERED WITH LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN STORY TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
PRESENT. THERE IS QUITE A DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MID 50S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA UP TO 70S DOWN NEAR THE IOWA
BORDER. LOOKING TOWARDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
IT WILL BE MAINLY DOWN IN THIS REGION WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THAT WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM THE SOURCE
OF FORCING. HOW FAR NORTH RAIN WILL GET WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WE GET AND HOW MUCH OF A MOISTURE PUSH
OCCURS. THE TWIN CITIES METRO IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THESE
CHANCES THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THIS ADDITIONAL PUSH FROM THE
LLJ TO SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE
THIS AREA SOUTH THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. OVERALL CI IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TO OUT WEST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL LIKELY SEE
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/IOWA. AS IS COMMON WITH THIS CONVECTIVE MODE, WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THIS PASSES THROUGH
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. PW VALUES WILL BE UP NEAR 2 INCHES
BASED ON CAM OUTPUT, SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN WHAT
STORMS DO OCCUR. IT WILL BE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS RAIN THAT
WILL DETERMINE THE FLOODING THREAT.
TUESDAY WILL SEE MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITHOUT MUCH
STRONG FORCING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL STILL BE ROBUST, AS IS
COMMON IN THE SUMMER, AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE AIRMASS KIND OF
THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK GREAT FOR US AND
THAT WILL LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES SUCH THAT SPC HAS MARGINAL OVER
US FOR TOMORROW. IN THE SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSION THEY MENTIONED
THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS AS
ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE MARGINAL RISK OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.
COOLER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE LOOK TO BE THE STORY FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOW POP
CHANCES. LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND THERE IS SOME SIGNAL WITHIN
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. SCATTERING STILL
REMAINS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT, BUT IT IS SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
EARLY, THAT SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED WITH
SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE NBM FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE A STRONGLY FORCED EVENT, WHICH INTRODUCES SOME ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY. WITH THESE RAIN CHANCES THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EXTEND INTO SATURDAY, WITH SOME WARMING FOR
THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH IMPACTS FOR -TSRA & BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT RWF & MKT. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW
FAR NORTH THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WILL CONTINUE A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT MSP BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MN & WESTERN WI. VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY EASTERLY THIS EVENING &
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW.
KMSP...THE MAIN REGION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL, BUT IT'S STILL UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR
NORTH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION & LIGHTING COULD EXTEND. THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL THUNDER WOULD BE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AROUND DAYBREAK.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...CHC MVFR/-TSRA EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA
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