485
FXUS63 KMPX 111717
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS MORNING OVER
MAINLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHERN MN, SOME OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR SIMILAR
AREAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT WITH LESS SEVERE POTENTIAL.
- BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL COMES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE WAVY WEST-TO-EAST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REFERENCED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS SILL REMAINS DRAPED OVER WY-NE-IA-IL-IN
THIS MORNING, WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG IT ANALYZED OVER
THE NE/IA BORDER AND THE WESTERN SD/NE BORDER. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER FORECASTS, WHICH AS SUCH IS
KEEPING THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH,
MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD, NORTHEASTERN NE AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN IA. THAT SAID, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS FRONT
AND THE LOW OVER THE NE/IA BORDER WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST,
WHICH STILL MAY INTERACT WITH STRONG H85-H7 WINDS (IN THE
40-60KT RANGE) AND A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FEATURING
DEWPOINTS STILL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND PWATS OVER
1.5". WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT HAS KEPT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLIDING EASTWARD OVER THE WFO MPX COVERAGE
AREA OVERNIGHT, ONLY PRODUCING A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER, THE LONGER WE GO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND PAST SUNRISE, THE LESSER THE CHANCE THAT ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA. STILL KEPT "LIKELY" POPS IN PLACE
FOR FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE
IS DROPPING HOUR-BY-HOUR THAT THIS MAY COME TO FRUITION SO SOME
CHANGES MAY STILL BE NEEDED IN THE GRIDDED HOURLY FORECASTS
THROUGH SUNRISE.
ONCE PAST SUNRISE, UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF A DEEP
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NOAM WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD,
ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP WHILE THE SURFACE
FEATURES ALSO SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PARTIAL CLEARING AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TO TAKE HOLD. THE
SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK IS MAINLY FOR ANY MORNING ACTIVITY AND POPS
ACCORDINGLY DROP FROM LATE MORNING ON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS UNDERNEATH PASSING HIGH CIRRUS AND SMOKE OVER THE AREA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL
TROUGH EMANATING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER NE/KS BUT ANYTHING THAT
DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BE OF NEARLY NO CONSEQUENCE.
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY BUT WEAK NOCTURNAL
FORCING CLOSE TO THE SAME STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY AGAIN
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONG-TO- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO ANOTHER MODEST
SURGE IN LOW-TO-MID LEVEL SHEAR, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MEAGER AND
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LACKING SO THERE IS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF NOT HAVING STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS THAN THERE
IS IN THEM BEING REALIZED.
A SMALL AIRMASS CHANGE LOOKS TO OCCUR STARTING ON THURSDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES A BETTER HOLD OVER THE REGION AND MODIFIED
COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAKES INROADS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL START A PERIOD OF HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S AREA-
WIDE AND LOWS IN THE 50S OUTSIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO (NEAR
60 WITHIN). THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
DRAGGING A SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS IT ARRIVES. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY, INCLUDING QPFS
OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN OVER A 30-36 HOUR PERIOD.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT A FEW
EMBEDDED T-STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS NOW NOTED IN THE BLENDED MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A DRYING OUT PERIOD AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
OTHER THAN A LONE SHOWER POPPING UP NEAR MKT, WE EXPECT TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SOME CUMULUS FORMING NEAR
THE DISSIPATING STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN MN. SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE STEMMING FROM SOME CONVECTION IN NORTH
DAKOTA, GENERALLY REMAINING FEW/SCT250 WITH SOME SCT060
POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE A FEW HOURS AFTER THE
START OF THE PERIOD, FAVORING 070-100 AT OR BELOW 5KTS BY THE
END. ELECTED TO GO AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO GUIDANCE WITH BR AT
EAU DUE TO HIGH RH AND NO WINDS, A COMBO THAT ALMOST ALWAYS
GIVES US SOME RADIATION FOG.
KMSP...THE BKN CIGS TO THE SOUTH HAVE WEAKENED AND STARTED TO
LIFT, WITH SOME FEW/SCT060 CUMULUS THROUGH 21-22Z AND
DISSIPATING AFTERWARDS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
FAVORING AROUND 090 AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BELOW 5KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC PM -SHRA/MVFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
SAT...-SHRA, CHC MVFR/IFR. WIND SE TO S 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDH
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