280
FXUS63 KMPX 131219
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY, BUT WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND AGAIN
NEXT WEEK AS WE ENTER A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. THAT SAID,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FOR EACH EVENT.
- TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE WAVY WEST-TO-EAST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REFERENCED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS STILL REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN SD THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN-SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA THROUGH DAYBREAK,
ALTHOUGH WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE DYNAMICS AND
BEST INSTABILITY WILL SIT WELL SOUTH OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE
AREA.
A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN ON FRIDAY
THEN SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL KINK NORTHWARD INTO THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL COMMENCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER CENTRAL ND ON
SATURDAY, WITH THAT NEWLY-FORMED LOW PRESSING EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. QPF CONTINUES TO DROP WITH THIS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY SPREAD OF RAINFALL, SO ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL IS
GREATLY WELCOME ACROSS THE AREA, THIS WILL NOT BE ANYTHING TO
PUT SIGNIFICANT DENTS INTO THE ONGOING DROUGHT OVER MUCH OF
MN/WI.
A DECENT DRYING OUT PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH FLATTENED RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ALOFT UNDERNEATH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. COME MONDAY NIGHT,
ANOTHER WEST-TO-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN TIER CONUS WHILE ZONAL FLOW
RESUMES. THIS WILL BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TO INTERACT WITH THE NEWLY-ARRIVING
FRONT, PUTTING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DAILY INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO STRONG
STORMS OR HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR ANY GIVEN 12-HR PERIOD,
JUST OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS HERE AND THERE FOR EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS STARTING TODAY
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR
TAKING UP MORE OF A RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE COMING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST.
SHOULD ANY DAYS FEATURE MORE RAINFALL THAN NOT, TEMPERATURES
COULD BE HELD A FEW MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
FARTHER NORTH, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY & DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE EASTERLY AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...ANY RAIN THIS M,MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
WITH MINIMAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS NEAR
STC COULD EXPAND SOUTHWARD, & BRIEFLY RESULT IN LOWER (MVFR)
VISIBILITY SHOULD THEY REACH THE METRO.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC -SHRA AND MVFR/IFR. WIND SE 10 KTS SHIFTING TO W.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WSW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...ETA
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