397
FXUS63 KMPX 132330
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
DAILY LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THANKS TO AN MCS OVER IOWA THIS
MORNING THAT IS NOW OVER WI AND IL AND CONTINUING EASTWARD.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR CLOUD COVER IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TO ERODE ALLOWING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MN AND WI BUT TIMING COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF OBSERVED
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THE REST OF TODAY. THUS SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A WARMER MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94 NEAR 80
DEGREES WHILE SOUTHERN MN WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S. TWO BANDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN, THIS SHOULD WEAKEN ANY
PRECIP ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN WE GO INTO A SHORT
HIATUS FROM PRECIP TONIGHT LEAVING FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...A SHORTWAVE WAVE ON THE WESTERN REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CREATES A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT'S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
WARM FRONT STALLS MAINLY OVER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERN MN UNDER A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY
RAIN AND STORMS AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HOWEVER,
WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER
WAVE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE
EXPANSION OF SOME PRECIP CHANCES NORTHWESTWARD BUT TIMING
DIFFERENCES MAKE PRECIP CHANCES LESS CERTAIN THUS HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP REMAINS SOUTH OF I-94. QPF CONTINUES TO
TREND DOWN. AS OF NOW, THE AREA THAT LOOKS TO FAVOR CLOSER TO AN
INCH IS SOUTH OF A LINE WHICH EXTENDS FROM RED WING, MN DOWN TO
ST. JAMES, MN. AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE INTO CENTRAL MN AND
WESTERN WI, COULD SEE NEAR TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE
RAIN IS ALWAYS WELCOMED BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPROVE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS WILL BECOME
A BIT STICKER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THEY CREEP INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND PERHAPS LOWER 70S BEFORE RETREATING BACK INTO NEAR
60 ON SUNDAY. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WHICH HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL TAKE HOLD OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY KEEPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE FORECAST PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW
AND BEGIN FEATURING NEAR DAILY LOWER-END PRECIP CHANCES. AS OF NOW,
THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR A MORE PERSISTENT RAIN DOESNT LOOK TO ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF EAU EARLY
IN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER MOST LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, VFR MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
LINGER WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS FROM
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST AT THE SOUTHWESTERN MN TERMINALS
(RWF/MKT), SO INCLUDED PROB30S FOR MVFR SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY
NEED FURTHER REFINEMENT AS MORE HI-RES DATA ARRIVES.
KMSP...QUIET TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
GUST UP TO 20KTS OR SO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN TOMORROW EVENING AND MAY BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AFTER SUNSET. BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES BEYOND THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC -SHRA AND MVFR/IFR. WIND SE 10 KTS SHIFTING TO W.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WSW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...STRUS
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