098
FXUS63 KMPX 280609
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
- A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STARTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S,
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
OVERALL, NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGES. QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
REMAINDER OF TODAY
FOR TODAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST, WITH IT'S
EASTERN PERIPHERY NOSING INTO MN. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TREND UP A
FEW DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND
MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
AVERAGE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CORRESPONDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE, WITH DP
TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS PW VALUES INCREASING TO 140-180 PERCENT OF NORMAL, SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THAT SAID, RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SWRN MN) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST GRIDS DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. WITH MODEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE... MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C/KM, 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE, AND A
BIT OF MLCIN, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. THIS
LINES UP WITH SPC OUTLOOK WHICH HAS THE FORECAST AREA IN
GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY.
THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY LOOKS NICE, WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
MAKE A RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S,
ALONG WITH DP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES. CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL INCREASE TO THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NEXT WEEK
THEREAFTER, A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE
NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING LOW-END CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH EVENING NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GREATER IMPACT WILL
BE MAINLY AROUND MKT AND RWF, HENCE THE 2SM TEMPO GROUPS FOR THOSE
SITES. FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS RNH AND EAU ALTHOUGH NOT AS
DENSE. THEREFORE, LIMITED CATEGORY MENTIONS MVFR MENTIONS ARE
MENTIONED AT THOSE LOCATIONS. CLEAR SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO SCT/BKN
CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AFTER DAYBREAK BELOW 10KTS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE INTRODUCED
NEXT TAF. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL TIME OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH.
KMSP...COULD SEE SOME FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEY ON APPROACH EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FIELD IMPACTS. ALTHOUGH NOT IN
THE CURRENT TAF, WILL NEED TO WATCH PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD (SATURDAY MORNING).
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC AM -TSRA. WIND S 10-15G20KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC EVENING/NIGHT -TSRA. WIND S 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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