510
FXUS63 KMPX 281858
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
158 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER WITH LOW POP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN ONGOING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET, A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QPF WISE, BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CAN'T SEE TO AGREE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIP WILL FALL. THERE HAVE BEEN DRAMATIC
SHIFTS IN THE PRECIP PLACEMENT FROM NOT ONLY MODEL TO MODEL BUT
RUN TO RUN AS WELL. A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST OVER A HALF
INCH SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SPC DID PULL THE
SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK FURTHER EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT STORMS GROW UPSCALE WITH A
DAMAGING WIND RISK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE,
INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR THE RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY MID
MORNING WITH SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR, BUT SOME AFTERNOON SUN IS
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN
EASTERLY BY THE EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THESE COULD POSE A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS FRONT WILL
STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ANY WIDESPREAD, PROLONGED BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS, COMBINED WITH TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
MEANS THAT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL HANG ON AS WE HEAD INTO
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY, OUT OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. SKY COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL, BECOMING
BKN AT 15-25 KFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PROB30S FOR -TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR ALL MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN TERMINALS, STARTING AT 07Z OUT WEST AND PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMEFRAME. EXACT
TIMING WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AT FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES, BUT FOR
NOW EXPECT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT 5-10 KNOTS AND SKY INCREASING IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE.
PROB30 FOR -TSRA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED THIS TAF CYCLE. AT THE
MOMENT, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT REGARDING TIMING,
AROUND 11-14Z TIMEFRAME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCHC -TSRA. WIND S 8-13KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 4-8KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...LPR
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