898
FXUS63 KMPX 290219
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
919 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER WITH LOW POP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
OUR INITIAL FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN RADAR ECHOES CAPTURED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN. THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION
OF MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN MN HIGHLIGHT A DRY LOWEST 10K
FEET OF THE COLUMN, WHICH IS WHY WE'VE ONLY OBSERVED A FEW
REPORTS OF RAINDROPS REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, A SEASONABLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NE/WESTERN IA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MN AND WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (POTENTIALLY AN
MCS) TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS WESTERN MN, WHERE A RESERVOIR
OF ~1000+ J/KG MUCAPES EXISTS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MN.
OTHERWISE, A NIGHT OF MUCH WELCOMED RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION, WITH A LOCALIZED AXIS (OR TWO)
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS EVENT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN ONGOING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET, A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QPF WISE, BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CAN'T SEE TO AGREE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIP WILL FALL. THERE HAVE BEEN DRAMATIC
SHIFTS IN THE PRECIP PLACEMENT FROM NOT ONLY MODEL TO MODEL BUT
RUN TO RUN AS WELL. A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST OVER A HALF
INCH SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SPC DID PULL THE
SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK FURTHER EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT STORMS GROW UPSCALE WITH A
DAMAGING WIND RISK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE,
INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR THE RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY MID
MORNING WITH SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR, BUT SOME AFTERNOON SUN IS
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN
EASTERLY BY THE EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THESE COULD POSE A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS FRONT WILL
STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ANY WIDESPREAD, PROLONGED BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS, COMBINED WITH TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
MEANS THAT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL HANG ON AS WE HEAD INTO
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FIRST 6-HOURS OF THE 00Z PERIOD WILL BE QUIET, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM EASTWARD. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT AXN & RWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REVEAL DRY AIR THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN WHICH SHOULD
WORK TO LIMIT THESE CHANCES.
A DIFFERENT STORY UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA. SHOWERS AND AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BLOSSOM ON THE NOSE OF THE JET
ACROSS EASTERN SD/WESTERN MN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER, SO CONFIDENCE
WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONVERT PROB30S TO TEMPOS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT AXN, RWF, & MKT. CONVECTION WILL OUTRUN THE MAIN INSTABILITY
PLUME AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER. AS SUCH, OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
PROB30S AT STC & MSP, TREND DOWNWARD TO A VCTS MENTION AT RNH,
AND REMOVE THUNDER FROM EAU. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE AS
THE MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD AFTER DAYBREAK.
A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING
RAINFALL, WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MIDDAY AT THE EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH CONVECTION TONIGHT AND COULD
FEATURE GUSTS OF 20-25KTS SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. CIGS RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...MAIN CHANGE TO THE 00Z TAF WAS TO PREVAIL WITH -SHRA
STARTING AT 10Z. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE TERMINAL NEAR OR AFTER 10Z, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING THE RAIN IS LOW DUE TO DISPLACEMENT FROM THE
BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE WEST. COLLABORATED WITH ZMP CWSU TO
KEEP THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA IN THE TAF FROM 11-14Z AND WILL FOLLOW
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO A TEMPO. PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE OUT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCHC -TSRA. WIND S 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW BCMG NW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...STRUS
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