007
FXUS63 KMPX 290534
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER WITH LOW POP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
OUR INITIAL FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN RADAR ECHOES CAPTURED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MN. THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPED WITHIN A REGION
OF MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS WESTERN MN HIGHLIGHT A DRY LOWEST 10K
FEET OF THE COLUMN, WHICH IS WHY WE'VE ONLY OBSERVED A FEW
REPORTS OF RAINDROPS REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR. AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, A SEASONABLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NE/WESTERN IA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MN AND WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (POTENTIALLY AN
MCS) TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ACROSS WESTERN MN, WHERE A RESERVOIR
OF ~1000+ J/KG MUCAPES EXISTS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MN.
OTHERWISE, A NIGHT OF MUCH WELCOMED RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION, WITH A LOCALIZED AXIS (OR TWO)
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS EVENT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN ONGOING AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY ARRIVE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THIS
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET, A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QPF WISE, BOTH
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CAN'T SEE TO AGREE ON WHERE
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIP WILL FALL. THERE HAVE BEEN DRAMATIC
SHIFTS IN THE PRECIP PLACEMENT FROM NOT ONLY MODEL TO MODEL BUT
RUN TO RUN AS WELL. A WIDE FOOTPRINT OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR JUST OVER A HALF
INCH SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SPC DID PULL THE
SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK FURTHER EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA FOR THE POTENTIAL THAT STORMS GROW UPSCALE WITH A
DAMAGING WIND RISK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE,
INSTABILITY IS LACKING FOR THE RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER.
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA BY MID
MORNING WITH SHOWERS HANGING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR, BUT SOME AFTERNOON SUN IS
POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN
EASTERLY BY THE EVENING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THESE COULD POSE A HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS FRONT WILL
STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ANY WIDESPREAD, PROLONGED BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS, COMBINED WITH TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
MEANS THAT SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL HANG ON AS WE HEAD INTO
METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AT
ISSUANCE TIME SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF RWF, BUT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. COVERAGE
OF THE RAIN SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR AIDED BY A LLJ WITH CHANCES
HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN MN AND DECREASING AS YOU HEAD EAST. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR, BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DURING THE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER COULD
OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
KMSP...SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME, BUT OVERALL SAME PICTURE AS
THE 00Z TAFS. KEEPING WITH THE PROB30 CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCHC -TSRA. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...NDC
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