297
FXUS63 KMPX 290859
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
TODAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER WITH LOW POP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TROUGHING OVER NEW
BRUNSWICK, CANADA DEPARTING NORTHEAST, WHILE BROAD TROUGHING
ENTERS THE PACNORTHWEST. SADDLED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
IS A RIDING PATTERN THAT EXTENDS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN-WEST
OVER TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW THIS RIDGING PATTERN, A
SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN AND DAKOTAS BORDER THAT WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH AN INTENSIFYING 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN RAINFALL BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SINCE 1 AM
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE
EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD
BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE AN AXIS OF MIXED
LAYER INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/K EXISTS. MUCH OF THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD BE CAPTURED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO WRAP UP BY 10 AM
THIS MORNING, WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL LAG CLOSER TO NOON BEFORE
MOST RAIN HAS PASSED ON. MOST AREAS HAVE A FAVORABLE SHOT AT
PICKING UP 0.25" OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING
CLOSER TO 0.75". ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS, SKY COVERAGE WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON LOCATION ACROSS MN/WI TODAY. FOR THOSE SOUTH AND
WEST OF I-94 HAVE A STRONGER SHOT AT SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHEREAS ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT BROKEN SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO REFLECT WHERE
SUNSHINE IS MORE PREVALENT, I.E SOUTHWEST MN REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, EASTERN MN NEAR 80, WESTERN WI, MID TO LOW 70S.
AFTER TODAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DAILY RAINFALL CHANCES. ON
SUNDAY, ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN SUNDAY MORNING
FEATURING A BROAD SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE FAVOR MORE OF CENTRAL MN TRACK THIS TIME BUT GIVEN
SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON STORM COVERAGE, WAS RELUCTANT TO GO
ASTRAY FROM CURRENT NBM POPS. KEY TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT MOST
AREAS ARE BETTER SUITED TO REMAIN DRY VERSUS SEEING RAIN. AS FOR
TEMPS, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEEL THE MOST HUMID WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER-80S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES, DEW POINTS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BUT
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AT
ISSUANCE TIME SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF RWF, BUT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. COVERAGE
OF THE RAIN SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL OCCUR AIDED BY A LLJ WITH CHANCES
HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN MN AND DECREASING AS YOU HEAD EAST. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR, BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR DURING THE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER COULD
OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.
KMSP...SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME, BUT OVERALL SAME PICTURE AS
THE 00Z TAFS. KEEPING WITH THE PROB30 CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL
SEE THE BEST CHANCE OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. SCHC -TSRA. WIND S 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW BCMG NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...NDC
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