483
FXUS63 KMPX 291816
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
116 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
TODAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF SEPTEMBER WITH LOW POP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TROUGHING OVER
NEW BRUNSWICK, CANADA DEPARTING NORTHEAST, WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING ENTERS THE PACNORTHWEST. SADDLED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS A RIDING PATTERN THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN-WEST OVER TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BELOW THIS
RIDGING PATTERN, A SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN AND DAKOTAS
BORDER THAT WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. MID-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AN INTENSIFYING 40-50KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RAINFALL BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SINCE 1 AM THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN WHERE AN AXIS OF MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/K EXISTS. MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE CAPTURED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT
THE RAINFALL TO WRAP UP BY 10 AM THIS MORNING, WESTERN WISCONSIN
WILL LAG CLOSER TO NOON BEFORE MOST RAIN HAS PASSED ON. MOST
AREAS HAVE A FAVORABLE SHOT AT PICKING UP 0.25" OF RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING CLOSER TO 0.75". ONCE THE RAIN
CLEARS, SKY COVERAGE WILL VARY DEPENDING ON LOCATION ACROSS
MN/WI TODAY. FOR THOSE SOUTH AND WEST OF I-94 HAVE A STRONGER
SHOT AT SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHEREAS ELSEWHERE CAN EXPECT
BROKEN SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALSO REFLECT WHERE SUNSHINE IS MORE PREVALENT,
I.E SOUTHWEST MN REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S, EASTERN MN NEAR
80, WESTERN WI, MID TO LOW 70S.
AFTER TODAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND DAILY RAINFALL
CHANCES. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MN
SUNDAY MORNING FEATURING A BROAD SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG STORM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE FAVOR MORE OF CENTRAL MN
TRACK THIS TIME BUT GIVEN SOME INCONSISTENCIES ON STORM
COVERAGE, WAS RELUCTANT TO GO ASTRAY FROM CURRENT NBM POPS. KEY
TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT MOST AREAS ARE BETTER SUITED TO REMAIN DRY
VERSUS SEEING RAIN. AS FOR TEMPS, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEEL
THE MOST HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-80S ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES, DEW POINTS
WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BUT HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
IN 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HIGH CEILINGS SPREAD ACROSS THE MN/WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SPLOTCHY MVFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI AT INITIALIZATION TIME. ANY AND ALL MORNING RAIN HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE WFO MPX TAFS, WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS
DURATION, THUS HAVE RUN WITH DRY TAFS FOR ALL SITES. CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY
WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS FOR ALL SITES NORTH OF RWF-MKT. SHOULD
WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED AT THE WI SITES, PRE-DAWN FOG
MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AVOIDED THAT
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT BUT LATER TAFS MAY INCLUDE AS SUCH. SE
WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY/GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN WILL SETTLE DOWN TO UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
KMSP...BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS, HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO EARLY ON FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS THEY HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
MOVED ACROSS MSP AND BEEN INCLUDED IN THE OBSERVATION. SUCH LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCOURED OUT MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN VFR HIGH CEILINGS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND S BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JPC
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