843
FXUS63 KMPX 291835
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
135 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND AS WE START SEPTEMBER
WITH MULTIPLE SHOWER CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
RAIN CLEARED THE CWA JUST BEFORE NOON TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH. MOST PLACES ENDED UP
WITH 0.20 TO 0.40" WITH SOME EMBEDDED HIGHER TOTALS GREATER THAN A
HALF INCH. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHICH WILL HELP KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK. WE WON'T BE AS LUCKY TOMORROW WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SENDING US AMPLE WARM, MOIST AIR. APPARENT TS MAY REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW. A SUBTLE WAVE OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EARLY SUNDAY FOR
FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ARRIVE AFTER SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN AS A LOW MOVES OUT OF THE DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THE MOST IT WILL DO
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS IS LOWER TDS FOR TUESDAY. THIS
FROPA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY, MAINLY IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
POPS INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL
EVENT LIKE WE SAW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.20"
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED WAVES PARADING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH PWATS RUNNING SOME 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THOSE WHO
WERE HOPING SEPTEMBER WOULD BRING FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL HAVE TO
WAIT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HIGH CEILINGS SPREAD ACROSS THE MN/WI AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SPLOTCHY MVFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI AT INITIALIZATION TIME. ANY AND ALL MORNING RAIN HAS SHIFTED
EAST OF THE WFO MPX TAFS, WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS
DURATION, THUS HAVE RUN WITH DRY TAFS FOR ALL SITES. CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, MOSTLY
WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS FOR ALL SITES NORTH OF RWF-MKT. SHOULD
WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED AT THE WI SITES, PRE-DAWN FOG
MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AVOIDED THAT
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT BUT LATER TAFS MAY INCLUDE AS SUCH. SE
WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY/GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN WILL SETTLE DOWN TO UNDER 10KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
KMSP...BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS, HAVE INCLUDED
A TEMPO EARLY ON FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS THEY HAVE INTERMITTENTLY
MOVED ACROSS MSP AND BEEN INCLUDED IN THE OBSERVATION. SUCH LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCOURED OUT MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN VFR HIGH CEILINGS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND S BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC PM -TSRA/MVFR. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JPC
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