447
FXUS63 KMPX 302338
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE- TO-NO CHANCES
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WARM AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IMMINENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, ITS WEST-TO-EAST WARM
FRONT BISECTING MN/WI AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS
SD INTO WY. WARM AIR ADVECTION, ALONG WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION,
IS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, NOW EVIDENT WITH WIND
SHIFTS TO THE SE AND S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN AND DEWPOINTS
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
THIS FRONT MAY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH THRU THIS EVENING BUT
GENERALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN
LATER THIS EVENING THEN PUSHES EAST TO THE TC METRO BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY THRU OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, IT'LL BE VERY LIGHT AND NORTH OF
I-94. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESSION EASTWARD
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
SWEPT EASTWARD, BUT STILL HANGING ON IN FAR EASTERN MN
(INCLUDING THE TC METRO) INTO WESTERN WI TOMORROW. SO WHILE MUCH
OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ESCAPED
CLOUD COVER, EXPERIENCED HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW-MID 90S
TODAY, MOST LOCALES IN MN WILL HAVE PEAK INDEX VALUES UNDER 90
ON MONDAY WHILE WESTERN WI WILL HAVE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 90S.
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MN AND WI WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THUS, DESPITE
TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 80S ALL WEEK, DEWPOINTS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S, MAKING HEAT
INDEX VALUES NO MORE THAN 1-2 DEGREES OVER ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE
AREA.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE
CURRENT PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM, MAKING FOR DRY WEATHER FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAKING EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BEST CHANCE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WFO MPX COVERAGE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF MN/WI, STRONG-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR COVERAGE AREA, KEEPING ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AWAY BUT A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MID-TO-
LATE WEEK MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE AND THERE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF EAU IN THE NEAR TERM,
OTHERWISE WE ANTICIPATE A DRY 00Z PERIOD AT LOCAL TERMINALS.
PASSAGE OF A NORTHWARD SURGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
SHIFT FROM ESE TO SSE FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD (WIND SHIFT HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT MKT & MSP AND SHOULD OCCUR AT RWF, RNH, &
EAU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS). WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RESULT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT
OUT OF THE WNW AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. COULD SEE POCKETS OF FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN WI.
GUIDANCE WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT STC,
SO HAVE A TEMPO FOR IFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 9-12Z.
KMSP...SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT HAS OCCURRED AS OF TAF ISSUANCE
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE NIGHT AND WILL
KICK OF THE WNW BETWEEN 5-10KTS MONDAY MORNING. VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SW TO W 5 KTS.
WED...EARLY AM TSRA/MVFR THEN VFR. WIND E 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...STRUS
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