384
FXUS63 KMPX 031217
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
717 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING.
- HEAT & HUMIDITY RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES LIKELY.
- FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
RAIN AND THUNDER HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE MINNESOTA/IOWA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING RIGHT WHERE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SO FAR, THESE STORMS HAVE
REMAINED SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY A FEW PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS
RECORDING SOME PERHAPS WIND GUSTS UP NEAR 40MPH. THIS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A ENE'LY TRACK THROUGH MUCH THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES NORTHWARD.
TODAY'S FORECAST REMAINS MUDDY. MUDDY AS IN REGARDS TO THE
QUESTION OF HOW LONG THIS MORNING "CLUTTER" STICKS AROUND. ITS
BEEN ADVERTISED THAT A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRIVER OF THAT SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
WOULD BE A SUBTLE WAVE THAT IS ON THE FAR REACHES OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE PACNORTHWEST. THIS WAVE FEATURE
WILL THEN RIDE THE APEX OF THIS RIDGE THEN THEN BE PULLED INTO
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. UPPER- FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY THEN, OUR AM CONVECTION SHOULD
HAVE CLEARED EAST AND WILL ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHWESTERN MN. FROM HERE, THIS IS WHERE HI-
RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. HREF/REFS AS AN EXAMPLE FAVOR A
BOWING MCS TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST. WHERE AS THE HRRR, DOES ALSO
CREATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BUT DOES NOT LOOK AS INTENSE AND
KEEPS THE RAIN MAINLY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IN ORDER FOR THE
SWEEPING MCS SCENARIO TO COME TO FRUITION, OUR ENVIRONMENT WOULD
REQUIRE TO RECOVER QUICKLY AND WARM UP. ALSO THE LINE WOULD
NEED TO DEVELOP AND THEN FOLLOW THE WARM/INSTABILITY GRADIENT
SOUTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO IS WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE SPC'S
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM A SLIGHT
RISK TO MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.
AS WE ENTER FRIDAY INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, WE WILL GET THE
HOT- AND- HUMID FORECAST ON A STICK. ONCE TODAY'S PRECIP EPISODE
PASSES, RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REACHES
BEYOND THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR TO SIT RIGHT OVER MN/WI FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
OF NOW, FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, AS HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-94
CORRIDOR. FOR THOSE WITHIN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIP, CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL EXIST
EACH DAY THANKS TO ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE IN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. STILL TO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE IMPACTS BUT AT
LEAST THERE IS HOPE FOR SOME TO GET A LITTLE DROUGHT RELIEF.
TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY COME BACK TO REALITY BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KMSP, KRNH, AND KEAU FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST. THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO RISK FOR THUNDER, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
LATER THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSTC,
KMSP, AND KRNH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KMSP...
SHOULD HAVE SOME STORMS AROUND FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN LATER THIS MORNING, THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE TWIN CITIES AREA. LATER THIS EVENING, STORMS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF MSP, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT. OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA. WIND SSE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA. WIND SSE 10G20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JRB
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