749
FXUS63 KMPX 172324
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD STEADY SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
- THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR I-90, WHERE HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING.
- LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WITH A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING ALONG AND NEAR I-90. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, AND COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND/OR BACK
BUILDING. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE, SO ANY AREAS THAT SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF STORMS HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4, 5, 6 INCHES, OR MORE. NO
FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED, BUT THESE WOULD BE NEEDED LATER
IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
GENERALLY IN THE AREA OF OWATONNA AND ALBERT LEA AND POINTS
EAST.
ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED, BUT THE
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE MUCH LESS GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RRFS AND HRRR FOR MSP ONLY HAVE
ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN ANY GIVEN HOUR, SO EVEN THOUGH TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SEEMS LIKELY BY THE TIME THE
RAIN ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE RISK FOR FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL MN
AND WEST CENTRAL MN IS PRETTY LOW, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THE SET UP FOR ALL OF THIS TIES BACK TO A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT WAS
LAID OUT WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
ALONG THIS WARM FRONT, AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.
THESE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY, BUT
WEAKEN AS THEY RUN OUT OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER
RAINFALL RATES, GENERALLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR. THE LONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE AN ENHANCEMENT OF FGEN/RAIN ALONG AN ELEVATED
FRONT, BUT EVEN THEN IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO GET RATES OVER AN INCH PER
HOUR GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER IS A DIFFERENT STORY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUILDING NEAR I-90, AND SOME HIRES
GUIDANCE SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR FLOODING, GENERALLY AFTER 6PM, AND
ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK...RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, LEAVING LOW CLOUDS BEHIND. A
FEW SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY, MAIN TO THE SOUTH ALONG I-
90 AGAIN. GIVEN THE CLOUDS, NORTHEAST WINDS, AND COOLER AIRMASS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S, GIVING A FALL-LIKE FEEL TO
THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
IOWA AND ILLINOIS, KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THERE ARE
A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN (10 TO 20 PERCENT) AT TIMES, BUT
OVERALL DRIER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT UNTIL
FRIDAY'S RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE RAIN ARRIVES
GOING WITH A PREVAILING MVFR IMPACT WITH MORE OF A TEMPO IFR. AS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SATURATE A MORE PREVAILING IFR
WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT OUTSIDE OF MKT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR OCCURRENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30 INCLUSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BECOMING
GUSTY FROM THE EAST UP TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW.
KMSP... OUR JUST VFR CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN WITH US THIS
EVENING. TOMORROW MORNING WE WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF AN ALL DAY
RAIN CHANCE. THIS RAIN SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH PERIODS OF
HEAVIER IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
FROM A CROSSWIND DIRECTION FOR THE PARALLELS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE RAIN
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10G15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF/JRB
AVIATION...NDC
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