647
FXUS63 KMPX 182019
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS EVENING, THE FLOODING THREAD HAS TRENDED DOWN, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5PM
AND 8PM FOR A FEW COUNTIES ALONG I-90.
- LOOKING AHEAD, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER THERE WAS NO LIGHTNING AS INSTABILITY REMAINED TO THE
SOUTH. THE LACK OF LIGHTNING AND DEEP CONVECTION MEANT RAINFALL
RATES WERE ONLY ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS KEPT THE
FLOOD THREAT LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE LONE EXCEPTION WAS DOWN ALONG I-90, WHERE THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD THREAT HAS TRENDED DOWN, BUT DID
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH SINCE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS.
OVERNIGHT, THE STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END, BUT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND SOME OMEGA, SO DID INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING, AND WENT WITH DRIZZLE
INSTEAD OF RAIN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S MAKING IT FEEL LIKE
FALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKING AHEAD, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS IOWA, AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOLER SIDE TO START THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS
START TO RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR, AND SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WEST.
OVERALL EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN CURRENTLY IS PLACED FROM WEST-
CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN WI AND SOUTHEASTERN MN. VISIBILITIES OF
1.5-3SM HAVE PERIODICALLY OCCURRED DURING MODERATE RAINFALL AS
THIS RAIN HAS TRAVELED EAST. VFR CIGS OVER WI FALL TO MVFR AND
THEN IFR AS ONE TRAVELS WEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
INITIAL ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH SO HAVE KEPT A PROB30 FOR
-TSRA AT MKT IN CASE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OCCURS. CONDITIONS
WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AS CIGS FALL WELL UNDER 1000
FEET. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS IT EXITS EAST, BUT
MIST/DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING
JUDGING BY DEEPLY SATURATED LOW-LEVELS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SLIGHTLY SLOWING AND TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DURING SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...MVFR LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF VISITS TO
IFR EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. ACTIVITY
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY LATE THIS EVENING AS CIGS
DROP TO IFR. CIGS WILL FLIRT WITH LIFR BUT DON'T HAVE CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. MIST/DRIZZLE WILL LAST
WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY START
IMPROVING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR FREEBORN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG
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