996
FXUS63 KMPX 190601
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
101 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS EVENING, THE FLOODING THREAD HAS TRENDED DOWN, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5PM
AND 8PM FOR A FEW COUNTIES ALONG I-90.
- LOOKING AHEAD, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER THERE WAS NO LIGHTNING AS INSTABILITY REMAINED TO THE
SOUTH. THE LACK OF LIGHTNING AND DEEP CONVECTION MEANT RAINFALL
RATES WERE ONLY ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS KEPT THE
FLOOD THREAT LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE LONE EXCEPTION WAS DOWN ALONG I-90, WHERE THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. THE FLOOD THREAT HAS TRENDED DOWN, BUT DID
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH SINCE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS.
OVERNIGHT, THE STEADY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END, BUT THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED
LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND SOME OMEGA, SO DID INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING, AND WENT WITH DRIZZLE
INSTEAD OF RAIN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S MAKING IT FEEL LIKE
FALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKING AHEAD, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS IOWA, AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOLER SIDE TO START THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY WINDS
START TO RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR, AND SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WEST.
OVERALL EXPECT DRY WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE PERSISTENT STRATUS, WHICH RAP
SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW SIGNS OF STARTING TO BREAK UP UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. MORE OR LESS CONTINUED TRENDS FROM THE
GOING TAFS, WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO
CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A CLASSIC GRAY FALL
DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WHERE CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH
IS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF, WITH RAP SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT, WITH LOTS OF SPREAD IN THE HI-RES
MODELS BETWEEN STRATUS REMAINING AND GOING AWAY AS WE WORK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR HOW THINGS MAY PLAY OUT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
KMSP...GOING TO BE HARD TO AVOID IFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
VIS AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A STEADIER
DRIZZLE GOING AT ANY POINT. SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR CIGS REALLY
TAKES OFF AFTER 00Z, SO THE FORECAST FOR CIGS SATURDAY NIGHT IS
VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FREEBORN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
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