799
FXUS63 KMPX 190748
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
248 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF I-90 IN
WASECA/STEELE/FREEBORN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING AND DUMPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5-7". BUT OVERALL, SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA RECEIVED 1-3" WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO ONLY AROUND
0.25-0.5" ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE LOW IN IOWA CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD.
AS IT DOES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO FILTER IN SOME
DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
MAKING FOR A FAIRLY GLOOMY FALL WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WISE,
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MAYBE A 5 DEGREE CHANGE
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
BY MONDAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
WE SEE OUR MOISTURE REALLY DROP OFF THROUGH MID WEEK. PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME FROST
IS POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS (PARTICULARLY WESTERN WISCONSIN),
SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE MONITOR CLOSELY HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE'S NOT MUCH ELSE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT UNTIL THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO COME BACK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS THAT WE ARE EXPECTING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP MAY END UP BEING CONFINED TO OUR WEST.
NBM POPS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, BUT AT
THIS POINT THERE'S STILL GOING TO BE A LOT OF VARIABILITY.
HIGHS CREEP BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH ENSEMBLES STARTING TO HINT AT OUR NEXT PRECIP CHANCE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE PERSISTENT STRATUS, WHICH RAP
SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW SIGNS OF STARTING TO BREAK UP UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. MORE OR LESS CONTINUED TRENDS FROM THE
GOING TAFS, WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO
CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A CLASSIC GRAY FALL
DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WHERE CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH
IS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF, WITH RAP SOUNDINGS STARTING TO SHOW
THE LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT, WITH LOTS OF SPREAD IN THE HI-RES
MODELS BETWEEN STRATUS REMAINING AND GOING AWAY AS WE WORK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT THINGS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND
WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR HOW THINGS MAY PLAY OUT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
KMSP...GOING TO BE HARD TO AVOID IFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
VIS AND LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A STEADIER
DRIZZLE GOING AT ANY POINT. SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR CIGS REALLY
TAKES OFF AFTER 00Z, SO THE FORECAST FOR CIGS SATURDAY NIGHT IS
VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FREEBORN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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