560
FXUS63 KMPX 191059
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
559 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
HEAVY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN
AREA OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF I-90 IN
WASECA/STEELE/FREEBORN COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING AND DUMPED SOME
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5-7". BUT OVERALL, SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA RECEIVED 1-3" WITH AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERING
OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO ONLY AROUND
0.25-0.5" ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. OVERCAST SKIES AND AREAS OF
FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE LOW IN IOWA CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD.
AS IT DOES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO FILTER IN SOME
DRIER AIR BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
MAKING FOR A FAIRLY GLOOMY FALL WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE WISE,
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MAYBE A 5 DEGREE CHANGE
FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
BY MONDAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
WE SEE OUR MOISTURE REALLY DROP OFF THROUGH MID WEEK. PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME FROST
IS POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS (PARTICULARLY WESTERN WISCONSIN),
SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WE MONITOR CLOSELY HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE'S NOT MUCH ELSE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT UNTIL THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO COME BACK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIRMASS THAT WE ARE EXPECTING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP MAY END UP BEING CONFINED TO OUR WEST.
NBM POPS ARE LIKELY TOO LOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, BUT AT
THIS POINT THERE'S STILL GOING TO BE A LOT OF VARIABILITY.
HIGHS CREEP BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH ENSEMBLES STARTING TO HINT AT OUR NEXT PRECIP CHANCE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
DRIZZLE WITH LIFR/IFR STRATUS WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH THE DRIZZLE GOING AWAY, BUT IFR CIGS REMAINING
THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH THE CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT. RAP SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW LEVELS
DRYING OUT, WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE HRRR IN THE FORM OF CLEARING
THAT DROPS DOWN FROM NORTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON. HOW AGGRESSIVE
THIS CLEARING WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE HI-RES MODELS IN THE STRATUS STAYING OR
CLEARING OUT TONIGHT. WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE AGREEMENT ON
AT LEAST A TEMPORARY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IS IN
CENTRAL MN, WE'LL SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IMPROVEMENTS CAN MAKE IT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KMSP...IFR VIS/CIGS WITH DRIZZLE WILL START US OFF FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE TAF, WITH IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW PRETTY RAPID
DRYING OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z TONIGHT, SO
FOLLOWED THAT IDEA WITH VFR CIGS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OR EVEN IF WE LOOSE THE STRATUS TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NE 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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