449
FXUS63 KMPX 191955
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
255 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SUNDAY
DAMP, COOL, AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR YOUR SATURDAY. AREAS OF
MIST/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN
BLANKETED UNDER THICK STRATUS CLOUDS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH FROM WHAT THEY ARE RIGHT NOW, HOVERING AROUND
60 DEGREES. ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
NEXT WEEK
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PROMOTE A DRYING
TREND WITH MOISTURE VALUES DECREASING STEADILY. DP TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 50
DEGREE DP TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRISP AND
COOL NIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
BY THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID, THERE'S STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
EAST THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE MAY
INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO ACROSS THE CWA.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON, SUCH THAT VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO 2SM.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY IFR IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS CIGS
REMAIN BELOW 1000 FEET. HOWEVER, A BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT SOME
MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/LOW-END VFR, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS RISE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.
FARTHER SOUTH, IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR. A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 13Z SUNDAY WHICH WILL RETURN ALL
TERMINALS TO MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
SLOW TO NEAR 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING WHILE BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS
DURING SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z BUT
OTHERWISE LOW-END MVFR WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SAGGING BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO SCOUR OUT SOME
MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LIFT/DECREASE CLOUD COVER EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, SHOULD STILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 19Z BEFORE
CIGS LIFT TO VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 20
KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...CTG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page