477
FXUS63 KMPX 192326
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
626 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SUNDAY
DAMP, COOL, AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR YOUR SATURDAY. AREAS OF
MIST/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN
BLANKETED UNDER THICK STRATUS CLOUDS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH FROM WHAT THEY ARE RIGHT NOW, HOVERING AROUND
60 DEGREES. ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
NEXT WEEK
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PROMOTE A DRYING
TREND WITH MOISTURE VALUES DECREASING STEADILY. DP TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 50
DEGREE DP TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRISP AND
COOL NIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
BY THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID, THERE'S STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
EAST THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE MAY
INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO ACROSS THE CWA.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
IT REMAINS A DREARY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS ARE TRENDING UP FROM EARLIER TODAY, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ARE STILL SEEING CLOUD BASES
BELOW 500 FT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT, WITH SOME
POCKETS OF VFR POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN
MID-MORNING, AND MANY SITES WILL FLIRT BETWEEN THAT MVFR/VFR
THRESHOLD AS CIGS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING GUSTY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AT TIMES.
KMSP...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG OF A PERIOD OF VFR
CIGS WE COULD SEE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MOST LIKELY
WINDOW FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IS BETWEEN 09 TO 16Z,
BUT THAT COULD SHRINK OR GROW DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY OUR BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...BED
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