077
FXUS63 KMPX 200534
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND SUNDAY
DAMP, COOL, AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR YOUR SATURDAY. AREAS OF
MIST/DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE REMAIN
BLANKETED UNDER THICK STRATUS CLOUDS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT INCREASE THAT MUCH FROM WHAT THEY ARE RIGHT NOW, HOVERING AROUND
60 DEGREES. ON SUNDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
NEXT WEEK
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PROMOTE A DRYING
TREND WITH MOISTURE VALUES DECREASING STEADILY. DP TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 50
DEGREE DP TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CRISP AND
COOL NIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
BY THURSDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID, THERE'S STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
EAST THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE MAY
INHIBIT RAIN CHANCES THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO ACROSS THE CWA.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLICATED SETUP TONIGHT WITH A CLEARING LINE
SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH OF THE US-12 CORRIDOR, BUT A WEAK FRONT IN
CENTRAL MN IS BRINGING A RENEWED RISK OF MVFR CIGS IN ITS WAKE.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE HRRR/RAP HAVE A GOOD GENERAL HANDLE ON CLOUD
TRENDS TONIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT MKT AND EAU. WE FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE
MAJORITY OF HI-RES MODELS IN THAT AS MIXING DEEPENS SUNDAY
MORNING, WE'LL SEE A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK DEVELOP, LIKELY AT
HIGH END MVFR LEVELS BEFORE RISING BACK TO VFR LEVELS AND
BREAKING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH A MODEST DIURNAL UPTICK IN SPEEDS
DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
KMSP...MSP IS ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH MAY SEE IT POP BACK IN OCCASIONAL IN THE FIRST 4 HOURS OR
SO OF THIS PERIOD. HIGH END MVFR CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z ON SUNDAY AS THE STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...MPG
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