761
FXUS63 KMPX 201127
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVERNIGHT SHIFTED SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS
WITH THE MAIN FRONT. WE'VE SEEN CLEARING SLOWLY PROCEED SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING ANY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO
CLOUD BACK UP PRETTY QUICK AS A STRATOCU FIELD FILLS BACK IN WITH
MIXING. STILL, THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TODAY TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 60S.
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY, ENERGY FROM THE MESSY TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS MT/WY WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST BIT OF ENERGY, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER WY, WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS NEB AND INTO IOWA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIGHT RAIN LOOKING LIKELY TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY GIVEN BROAD AND WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE H5 LOW DOWN OVER IOWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT (UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH), BUT MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL, GRAY, AND DAMP
DAY SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WE'LL SEE A REX BLOCK TRY TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA, WITH THE PRIMARY BLOCKING HIGH SETTING UP OVER
HUDSON BAY. THIS UPPER AIR SETUP WILL SUPPORT A NEARLY STATION
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW
RESULTING FOR US. THIS WILL DRY US OUT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
THIS FRONT WILL WASHOUT AND LOSE ITS DEFINITION OVER MN ON THURSDAY,
BUT ITS PLUME OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN, WHICH LOOKS TO
SHAKE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN MN AS
THE LOW LEVEL AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY DRIER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE RIDGING RETURN WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS TRENDING
DRIER AS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THAT WESTERN TROUGH NOT EJECTING OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS UNTIL EARLY IN THE WEEK OF THE 28TH. AFTER
THE GLOOMY WEEKEND WE HAVE HAD TO THIS POINT, NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE
A GREAT WEEKEND TO GET OUT AND ENJOY YOUR FAVORITE FALL OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING TAFS, WITH THE STRATOCU
FIELD EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN THIS MORNING AS MIXING DEEPENS
AND WE MAKE A CU FIELD. IT SHOULD START AS MVFR, BUT LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD MOSTLY LOSE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL REPLACE THEM,
KEEPING THE STATUS QUO WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
KMSP...STILL LOOKS LIKE 16Z TO 20Z IS OUR BEST WINDOW FOR SEEING
MVFR CIGS AS THE CU FIELD FILLS IN, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL AFTER 22Z. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CROSS-WIND COMPONENT
WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS, THOUGH DIRECTIONS LOOK TO HAVE ENOUGH
OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO KEEP THE 12S AS THE PRIMARY RUNWAYS
TODAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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