812
FXUS63 KMPX 201703
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVERNIGHT SHIFTED SOUTH INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS
WITH THE MAIN FRONT. WE'VE SEEN CLEARING SLOWLY PROCEED SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING ANY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING TO
CLOUD BACK UP PRETTY QUICK AS A STRATOCU FIELD FILLS BACK IN WITH
MIXING. STILL, THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A LITTLE SUN WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TODAY TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID 60S.
FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY, ENERGY FROM THE MESSY TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS MT/WY WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STRONGEST BIT OF ENERGY, WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER WY, WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS NEB AND INTO IOWA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIGHT RAIN LOOKING LIKELY TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY GIVEN BROAD AND WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE H5 LOW DOWN OVER IOWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT (UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH), BUT MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL, GRAY, AND DAMP
DAY SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES.
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WE'LL SEE A REX BLOCK TRY TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL CANADA, WITH THE PRIMARY BLOCKING HIGH SETTING UP OVER
HUDSON BAY. THIS UPPER AIR SETUP WILL SUPPORT A NEARLY STATION
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A DRY EASTERLY FLOW
RESULTING FOR US. THIS WILL DRY US OUT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
THIS FRONT WILL WASHOUT AND LOSE ITS DEFINITION OVER MN ON THURSDAY,
BUT ITS PLUME OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN, WHICH LOOKS TO
SHAKE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN MN AS
THE LOW LEVEL AIR BECOMES INCREASINGLY DRIER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE RIDGING RETURN WITH UPPER
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS TRENDING
DRIER AS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THAT WESTERN TROUGH NOT EJECTING OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS UNTIL EARLY IN THE WEEK OF THE 28TH. AFTER
THE GLOOMY WEEKEND WE HAVE HAD TO THIS POINT, NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE
A GREAT WEEKEND TO GET OUT AND ENJOY YOUR FAVORITE FALL OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A STRATOCUMULUS DECK NEAR 2000 FEET CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST EVENTUALLY CAUSING MVFR AT RWF AND MKT BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT, DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO LIFT AND BREAK APART
THESE CLOUDS AS WE GO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND STRATUS NEAR 5000 FEET DEVELOPING
DURING MONDAY MORNING. A MESSY TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO IA DURING
MONDAY, BRINGING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN MN. HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 AT MKT FOR -SHRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN SLOW TO 5-10 KNOTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 22Z WHEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK BREAKS
APART ENOUGH AND LIFTS TO VFR. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MVFR STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED MID-MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC AM -SHRA. WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...CTG
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