040
FXUS63 KMPX 210008
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
708 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND MONDAY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF YOUR
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S. ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PROMOTE
DRYING TREND WITH MOISTURE VALUES DECREASING STEADILY. DP TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 50
DEGREE DP TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
CRISP AND COOL NIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH FEW AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, RESULTING IN LOW-END CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN MN. THE NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
OFFER TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER. HOWEVER, IT WILL ALLOW
DP TEMPS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
BECOMES MORE MESSY WITH DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
BETWEEN RUN TO RUN DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THAT SAID,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, STILL HINTING AT
DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
PRACTICALLY GLOOMY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
VFR STRATUS BLANKETS ALL SITES THIS EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
CIGS WILL LOWER TOWARD LOW-END VFR/HIGH MVFR HEIGHTS. FOR NOW, KEPT
TAFS IN VFR FOR NOW WITH SCT MENTIONS FOR ANYTHING BELOW 3KFT. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR -SHRA/RA
MAINLY FOR RWF AND MKT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN APPEAR TO SATURATE ENOUGH WHERE PRECIP ALOFT SHOULD
REACH THE SURFACE AFTER 21Z. ADDED AND PROB30 AT RWF AND MAINTAINED
THE ONE AT MKT FOR ANY ISO -SHRA THAT DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ENE'LY BETWEEN 7-10KTS.
KMSP...HARDLY ANY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
TWEAK IN THE CIGS ~15Z TOMORROW MORNING TO LOW VFR BORDERLINE MVFR.
A SLIM CHANCE FOR RA/-SHRA EXISTS HOWEVER DRY AIR IN LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK TO KEEP PRECIP AS VIRGA. THEREFORE KEPT THOSE
MENTIONS OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC AM -SHRA. WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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