434
FXUS63 KMPX 210529
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND MONDAY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF YOUR
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S. ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL PROMOTE
DRYING TREND WITH MOISTURE VALUES DECREASING STEADILY. DP TEMPS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 50
DEGREE DP TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
CRISP AND COOL NIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING AND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE, WITH FEW AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, RESULTING IN LOW-END CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS
WESTERN MN. THE NEXT SLUG OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
OFFER TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER. HOWEVER, IT WILL ALLOW
DP TEMPS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, THE UPPER FLOW REGIME
BECOMES MORE MESSY WITH DISCREPANCIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
BETWEEN RUN TO RUN DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THAT SAID,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, STILL HINTING AT
DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ARE STRUGGLING
TO MAKE IT FURTHER NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING, LIKELY DUE TO DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS TAF SET WAS TO
REMOVE/DECREASE -SHRA MENTIONS FOR KRWF/KMKT. CIGS ARE
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR, THINKING SOLID MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE
MID/LATE MORNING FOR THESE SITES. KMKT MAY BOUNCE AROUND IN THE
NEAR TERM, SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE, LOW END VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EASTERLY AT 10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IT'LL BE RIDING THAT
ANNOYING VFR/MVFR LINE, BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE
MVFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. -SHRA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC AM -SHRA. WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...DYE
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