571
FXUS63 KMPX 210747
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS ON TAP TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60.
-GRADUAL WARM UP ON THE WAY WITH NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
MINNESOTA IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UP TO THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR AS A
HIGH SITS TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. DID CUT BACK ON POPS QUITE A BIT FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA COUNTIES. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN WITH
HIGHS BARELY TOUCHING 60 FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA AND ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW 50S WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WE'LL FINALLY SEE CLOUDS START TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S/UPPER 30S. THERE'S STILL A POSSIBILITY
WE'LL NEED SOME FROST HEADLINES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST. WITH
THIS WILL COME A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WESTERN MINNESOTA STILL HAS THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING SOME RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THE EASTWARD
EXTENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS THE FEATURE WASHES OUT. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE'S DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
BEYOND THURSDAY. OVERALL, WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (70S) WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AREA WIDE
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA ARE STRUGGLING
TO MAKE IT FURTHER NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING, LIKELY DUE TO DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS TAF SET WAS TO
REMOVE/DECREASE -SHRA MENTIONS FOR KRWF/KMKT. CIGS ARE
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR, THINKING SOLID MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE
MID/LATE MORNING FOR THESE SITES. KMKT MAY BOUNCE AROUND IN THE
NEAR TERM, SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR THIS. ELSEWHERE, LOW END VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EASTERLY AT 10KTS OR LESS.
KMSP...LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, IT'LL BE RIDING THAT
ANNOYING VFR/MVFR LINE, BUT FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE
MVFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP. -SHRA WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC AM -SHRA. WIND SE 10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...DYE
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