100
FXUS63 KMPX 211726
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS ON TAP TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60.
-GRADUAL WARM UP ON THE WAY WITH NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
MINNESOTA IS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT UP TO THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR AS A
HIGH SITS TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. DID CUT BACK ON POPS QUITE A BIT FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA COUNTIES. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN WITH
HIGHS BARELY TOUCHING 60 FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA AND ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW 50S WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
WE'LL FINALLY SEE CLOUDS START TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S/UPPER 30S. THERE'S STILL A POSSIBILITY
WE'LL NEED SOME FROST HEADLINES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST. WITH
THIS WILL COME A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WESTERN MINNESOTA STILL HAS THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING SOME RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THE EASTWARD
EXTENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS THE FEATURE WASHES OUT. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE'S DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
BEYOND THURSDAY. OVERALL, WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (70S) WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AREA WIDE
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING TAF DEALING MAINLY WITH
MVFR/-SHRA ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
LOW VFR FOR THE NORTH/EAST. RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE TO CHURN
LEFTOVER FROM THE MORNING, HOWEVER DRY MID LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM REACHING THE GROUND EXCEPT FOR AXN/RWF/MKT. MVFR SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR FOR ALL SITES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CIGS
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT TOWARDS 12Z, WITH
FEW250 TO SKC TO END THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL HAVE LIMITED GUSTING
INITIALLY AT 070-100 SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO 120-150.
KMSP...KEPT THE PERSISTENCE LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR TAF GOING, HOWEVER
WE MIGHT CHANGE BETWEEN CATEGORIES FOR THE FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF
THE TAF BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR FOR THE REMAINDER. THE
SHOWERS APPEARING ON RADAR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY AS
VIRGA WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS REACHING THE SURFACE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA/MVFR EARLY. WIND SE 5-10KTS
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...TDH
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