828
FXUS63 KMPX 221051
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
551 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NONE OF THESE
LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
500 ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A REX BLOCK
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO HUDSON BAY.
THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET RAIN CHANCES EAST OF I-
35.
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE THIS RIDGE TO OUR NORTH, YOU CAN STILL SEE A NICE
SPIN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE QUAD CITIES AND IT IS FEATURE
THAT HAS HELPED KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SPIT OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WHERE YOU SEE
CLOUDS THIS MORNING (SOUTHERN MN, THEN UP THE BUFFALO RIDGE) WILL BE
WHERE WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE MOST CLOUD COVER TODAY, BUT WE WILL AT
LEAST GET TO SEE MORE OF THE SUN TODAY THAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS. BY TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH THE
COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK EXPECTED, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S FROM THE AREA OF MILLE LACS OVER TO NORTHWEST WI. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN WESTERN MN, BUT THAT GREAT LAKES HIGH WILL
HOLD ANY PRECIP BACK WEST IN THE DAKOTAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THIS RAIN CHANCE IS THE NBM WIND FORECAST
SHOWS NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, WITH THAT
FEATURE WASHING OUT IN THE DAKOTAS BEFORE REACHING MN. HOWEVER, THE
PLUME OF INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5" AND 1.75", WILL
PUSH ON WITHOUT THE FRONT. IT'S THIS PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS
NEAR 180% OF NORMAL) THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS MN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
GREATEST IN WESTERN MN (WHERE POPS ARE NOW IN THE 80S) THAT TAIL OFF
TO LESS THAN 20% BY THE TIME YOU GET TO WI. WE THINK THE 00Z RRFS
HAS A GOOD GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT TO EXPECT, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING, THAT
WILL WORK EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIKELY FALLING APART BEFORE
REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE A THUNDER THREAT, BUT NOT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY, WITH PLENTY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING, BUT THERE'S NO FORCING PRECIP, WHICH
MEANS YET ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 60S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SATURDAY WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE WORK ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS WILL PULL ANOTHER PLUME OF
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS MN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, KIND OF
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'LL SEE THURSDAY. SATURDAY DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT, THOUGH FOR MN, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE CLOSER TO WI YOU GET ON SATURDAY, THE MORE
INFLUENCE YOU'LL HAVE FROM THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, WHICH WILL AGAIN MAKE LIFE DIFFICULT FOR RAIN TO PUSH INTO
THAT DRIER AIRMASS.
AGAIN WE DRY OUT ON SUNDAY BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT A
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE'S STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD
WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED WITH
THE IDEA OF STRONGER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS IDEA,
INSTEAD KEEPING THE RIDGING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TAFS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY AS COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL
BE PERSISTENTLY OUT OF THE EAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT ALL MPX TERMINALS.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS
THU...VFR, CHC -SHRA EARLY. WIND SSE 5-10 KTS
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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