845
FXUS63 KMPX 231050
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NONE OF
THESE LOOK TO PROVIDE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
RAP H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A CLOSED HIGH CENTERED NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SURFACE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL A FRONT PASSES
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO SETUP A WEST TO
EAST GRADIENT IN MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HIGHEST IN WESTERN MN AND LOWEST IN WESTERN WI UNTIL THAT MORE
DEFINED FROPA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THOSE DRY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY, WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE
DAKOTAS. THAT MOISTURE PLUME WILL LAY INTO WESTERN MN OVERNIGHT.
BIGGEST CHANGE WE'VE SEEN IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IS A
SLOWING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, EVEN IN WESTERN MN.
EVENTUALLY, WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE LLJ
LATE TONIGHT, WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO LIKELY. THIS AREA OF
RAIN WILL THEN FALL APART DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS IT RUNS INTO
THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY
WILL GIVE A CLOUDY BREAK FROM THE RAIN, BEFORE WE KIND OF HAVE A
REPEAT OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE
AGAIN, WE'LL SEE A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO
DEVELOP WITHIN AN ENHANCED LLJ. SATURDAY WON'T BE A WASHOUT, BUT THE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE LOW 60S.
LIKE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES RESULTS IN LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES AS YOU GET INTO WI. FOR SUNDAY, IT'S BACK TO OUR
COOL, CLOUDY, AND DRY WEATHER AS THE ENHANCED H85 FLOW THAT DRIVES
THE SATURDAY RAIN FALLS APART.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE MODELS COME AROUND ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR A BOUNDARY PASSAGE. THE STRENGTH OF THAT SYSTEM
VARIES QUITE A BIT, BUT THE GENERAL IDEA OF ANOTHER UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXISTS. IT DOES LOOK
TO GET A BIT WARMER/MORE HUMID AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, SO
THERE COULD BE SMALL CHANCE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, THIS JUST LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE TRAIN OF QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RAIN EVENTS SPACED A COUPLE OF DAYS APART. THE ONE BIG
DIFFERENCE THOUGH BETWEEN THIS RAIN CHANCE AND WHAT WE SEE THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY AS THAT WE'LL ACTUALLY SEE A WIND SHIFT OVER TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS RAIN CHANCE AS THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA STARTS TO BREAK DOWN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THROUGH TODAY, WE'LL SEE CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN MN
WITH ESE WINDS. AFTER SUNSET, THOSE CLOUDS WILL START PUSHING
EAST ACROSS MN. WITH THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME RAIN
CHANCES IN WESTERN MN. BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD, HI-RES MODELS
SHOW A SOLID N-S ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN MN, BUT
THAT DOESN'T REALLY START TAKING SHAPE UNTIL AFTER 9Z. WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS STEADY LIGHT RAIN, BUT FOR NOW,
FOCUSED PRECIP MENTION AT RWF/AXN TO WHEN THE SHIELD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THAT STEADY
RAIN MOVES IN LATE.
KMSP...COME THURSDAY MORNING, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE METRO, BUT RAIN WILL BE STRUGGLING WITH
DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO THE MSP AREA, SO KEPT THE TAF DRY FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, SLGT CHC -SHRA. WIND SSE 5-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-15 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. -SHRA LIKELY. SE 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG
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