502
FXUS63 KMPX 231842
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL FALL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH SLIGHT RISES AND
FALLS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
IT IS A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
7-DAY FORECAST. A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES / EASTERN CANADA REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH
GENERALLY.
THERE ARE THREE MAIN WINDOWS TO WATCH FOR RAIN THIS PERIOD, WITH
THE FIRST TWO COMING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND THEN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. IN BOTH CASES, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP ENHANCE
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ, PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
DEWPOINTS STUCK IN THE 50S, SO WIDESPREAD STORMS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. AS THE RAIN SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY, AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE CASE OF SATURDAY,
DRIER AIR AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN IS ABLE TO TRAVEL.
THE PATTERN WILL START TO SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE NUDGES THE UPPER RIDGE
EASTWARD. TIED TO THE SHORTWAVE, A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WOULD DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP MONDAY BEFORE WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SE WINDS TODAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HEIGHT OF THIS CUMULUS WILL BE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR. GENERALLY
SHOULD NOT GET MORE THAN SCT, BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IF IT GETS TO BKN COVERAGE. RAIN WILL ADVANCE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. RAIN IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS AND BECOMES LESS LIKELY FARTHER EAST AS
IT RUNS INTO MORE DRY AIR. WESTERN TERMINALS LIKE AXN AND RWF
WILL SEE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AS THIS RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
MVFR LIKELY FOR STC AND MKT WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR (MORE LIKELY
AT STC). MSP AND WISCONSIN TERMINALS ARE THE MORE UNCERTAIN
LOCATIONS AS THIS IS WHERE THE SHOWERS COULD BE DRYING UP.
KMSP... WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE SE OVER THIS PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN BEST TO WEST OF THE TERMINAL, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW. MAINLY
LOWER VFR CEILINGS, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR IF SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR. -SHRA LIKELY. WIND SE 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC
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