671
FXUS63 KMPX 080522
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1222 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
RESULT OF WARMING TEMPERATURES & STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EARLY AFTERNOON UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DISPLAYS TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LARGE SCALE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PLACED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITHIN A BELT OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW (50+ KNOT 700MB WINDS), WHICH MIXES DOWN AS 20-30 MPH SURFACE
GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI.
SATELLITE REVEALS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S (NORTH) TO MID 70S (SOUTH) ARE ON TRACK.
SHOULD ALSO NOTE THAT MIXING OF THE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S, WHICH YIELDS
MINIMUM RH'S BETWEEN 25-35 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR
AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT
IN THE 40S. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ON DECK FOR THURSDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S, LIGHT WINDS, AND MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY...CHANGES ARE
ON THE WAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY
SERVES AS THE TRANSITION DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EARLY
DAY SHOWERS OR A STORM ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ (LIKELY ORIENTED TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN IA). WE'LL LIKELY HAVE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH
MID-LEVEL WAA UNDERWAY. SKIES CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE
SURFACE FRONT SURGES NORTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WARMEST ALONG I-90). THE
WARMTH REALLY RAMPS UP ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOUTH AND EAST OF DEVELOPING ~990S MB SURFACE
LOW SET TO EXIST OVER THE DAKOTAS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, A
SEASONABLY STRONG 50-55KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL SPAN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE ADVECTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
20-21C 850MB T'S (WHICH IS A ROUGHLY 12-16C TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
FOR THE START OF THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER!). WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE LIKELY -- THOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH OF 85 AT MSP WOULD FALL SHORT OF THE DAILY RECORD
OF 90 (1928) WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE THE LATEST 90 RECORDED IN
THE TWIN CITIES. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMTH, THE STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW AND MIXING OF THE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A VERY WINDY DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS UP
40-45 MPH. DESPITE MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION (DEW POINTS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 50S BY MIDDAY SATURDAY), THE DEGREE
OF SURFACE HEATING WILL DROP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH'S TO BETWEEN
30-35 PERCENT, WHICH COMBINES WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHOULD TEMPERATURES
WARM MORE THAN FORECAST, THE INCREASE IN THE VAPOR PRESSURE
DEFICIT (VPD) COULD RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO
DEVELOPING. WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
BOOST WINDS & LOWER TD'S ON SATURDAY TO REFLECT OUR LATEST
FORECAST THOUGHTS.
COOLER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY SUNDAY,
THE SYNOPTIC LOOK IS QUITE INTERESTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE MID-LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL
HAVE TRANSLATED EAST ACROSS ONTARIO/NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
REGIONAL ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE
REMNANTS OF T.S ISAIAS, WHICH ARE PROGGED TO TRAVEL NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXITING TO THE EAST AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST, SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WHILE STILL BREEZY AT TIMES,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS SATURDAY.
STILL, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS IT'S POSSIBLE
THAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH ENDS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES CRASHING
SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING, TURNING THE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND USHERING
IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
50S/LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, A QUICK
HITTING DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ON MONDAY, AS REPRESENTED BY 30-50%
POPS FROM THE LATEST NBM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TRENDS DROPS AFTER MONDAY, DUE TO TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES
SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS SET TO
INTERACT WITH SLOW-MOVING WESTERN TROUGHING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL SITES. WNW'LY WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
SLIGHTLY BELOW 10KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ~12-15Z TIMEFRAME AND
LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SSW 15-25G35KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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